At the FOMC interest rate meeting at 2 a.m. today, the price of the currency returned from 5w7 to 6w. The most direct driving force was the market's increased expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut tonight. The CME forecast reached a maximum of about 70% yesterday, and it dropped slightly today, reaching 61%. It can be said that the current price should include part of the effect of a 50 basis point rate cut. If the rate is only reduced by 25 tonight, the short-term currency price will have to spit out part of the price. If the rate is reduced by 50 as scheduled, it is possible to rush to 6w3 tonight. Considering that the interest rate has remained unchanged for nearly 1 year, the first reduction in this round is definitely the focus of global attention. At the same time, this time is also the most likely to have a black swan. A few days ago, a senator suggested a direct 75 basis point cut, but some large institutions insisted on 25, such as Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered. Nick, who has always been a spokesman for the Federal Reserve, hinted that it is difficult to choose this time. This leads to tonight's interest rate meeting being completely a blind box, and surprises or shocks are just a thought away.