Daily Summary:

  • BTC ETF has a large inflow,

  • The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in May has increased significantly

According to Farside Investor data, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $186 million yesterday. Among them, Fidelity FBTC had an inflow of $56 million, Ark ARKB had a net inflow of $42 million, and Bitwise BITB had an inflow of $45 million. BlackRock IBIT had no inflow or outflow of funds.

The US Ethereum spot ETF had an outflow of $15 million yesterday, and the overall ETH ETF trading volume was small. Among them, Grayscale ETHE had an outflow of $17.9 million, and BlackRock ETHA had no inflow or outflow of funds.

Data: The number of CEX Bitcoin deposit addresses has dropped to the lowest level in recent years, which may indicate that the selling pressure has eased

According to a recent research report from CryptoQuant, the number of Bitcoin CEX platform deposit addresses has dropped to 132,100, the lowest level in many years. This indicator represents the number of addresses that send inflow transactions to the trading platform. Analysis shows that the lowest level in many years indicates that the number of investors selling Bitcoin on spot trading platforms has decreased, which may indicate that the selling pressure has eased.

But Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said that when deposits on trading platforms decrease, it may not only indicate that people are less interested in selling Bitcoin. It may also mean that there is less demand for Bitcoin overall because fewer traders are depositing funds to bet on price increases.

Eigenpie will conduct IDO on September 20

Eigenpie posted on social media that its IDO will be held on Magpie Launchpad via the Arbitrum network. Snapshots will be taken between September 18 and 20 to determine the IDO quota allocation for vlMGP holders, MGP, and vlMGP burners. The IDO will start at 21:00 on September 20 and end at 21:00 on September 24, Beijing time. The private placement round share allocation is as follows:

Eigenpie Points holders: 70.59%
vlMGP holders: 20.59%
MGP/vlMGP burners: 8.82%

The private round will be completed in 24 hours with a FDV of $3 million. The public round will last for 72 hours with a FDV of $6 million, and the final price is determined by the total amount of funds committed in this round divided by the total number of tokens sold in this round. The total token share of IDO is 3,600,000 EGP, and the private round tokens will be locked for 6 months and then unlocked linearly over 2 years. The public round tokens will be 100% unlocked at the TGE.

The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points this week is 63%.

According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 37.0%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 63.0%.

Market analysis: BTC leads the general rise of the market, NEIROCTO is far ahead

Market Trends

-BTC returned to $61,000 in the early hours of this morning and is currently consolidating around $60,000. BTC ETF has resumed large inflows, and the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates;

-ETH performed weakly, with almost no price fluctuations during the day, still hovering around $2,300, and ETH ETF continued to outflow;

- Altcoins followed the general market rebound, with NEIROCTO, BIGTIME, FIGHT and others performing well;

- In terms of data indicators, today's AHR999 index is 0.65, and the index has rebounded sharply along with the BTC price; the fear and greed index is 45, and the market sentiment has recovered after the general rise.

Market Hotspots

1. Meme sector: NEIROCTO, FIGHT, BABYDOGE and other tokens rose. NEIROCTO became the star token leading the market with an intraday increase of over 100%. NEIROCTO is the first Neiro token deployed on the Ethereum blockchain. It has received great attention from market funds this week and doubled its price within 24 hours. FIGHT is a meme coin related to the US presidential election. US presidential candidate Trump posted content related to the FIGHT slogan on Twitter, which stimulated the rise of FIGHT. The intraday increase of FIGHT once reached 400%, but it has now fallen sharply.

2. GameFi sector: BIGTIME, MAVIA and other tokens surged, with BIGTIME becoming the best performing GameFi token with a 45% intraday increase. BIGTIME has been online for one year and has been rising since it was recently listed on a Korean trading platform. The BIGTIME project has been continuously updating game content and has a good community building. Another rising game, Mavia, is a tower defense strategy game. The project announced yesterday that it would launch the Web Ruby Marketplace, where users can trade in-game assets, and will add the MAVIA token trading function to the trading market in November.

3. Social concept: UXLINK has soared by more than 60%, and its current market value is $123 million. UXLINK has risen 500% from the beginning of the month. Uxlink is the infrastructure of the web3 social platform, and the UXLINK token can capture the value of the entire Uxlink ecosystem.

Macroeconomics: S&P 500 hits new record high, Federal Reserve holds interest rate meeting tomorrow morning

The three major U.S. stock indexes rose and fell, with the S&P 500 up 0.03% to 5,634.58 points, the Dow Jones down 0.04% to 41,606.18 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.20% to 17,628.06 points. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was 3.65%, and the 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, was 3.59%.

This week, the world will start the "Super Central Bank Week", and the focus of the financial market will be the interest rate decisions announced by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. In addition, the central banks of many countries such as the United Kingdom, Brazil, Norway, and Indonesia will also announce the latest interest rate decisions one after another, and European Central Bank President Lagarde and several members will give speeches during the week. Nick Timiraos, a well-known macro journalist known as the "Federal Reserve's mouthpiece", recently said that the Federal Reserve will definitely cut interest rates this week, but it is still unclear whether the rate cut will be a larger 50 basis points or the traditional 25 basis points.

According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 37.0%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 63.0%.

Summarize

At present, the overall market sentiment has recovered, driven by good macro news. Bitcoin and some altcoins performed strongly, with tokens in the Meme and GameFi sectors in particular showing significant upward momentum. However, Ethereum and some assets are still weak. Investors need to pay close attention to market dynamics and policy changes, operate cautiously, and allocate assets reasonably.