There are three days left before the interest rate cut begins. Let's review the trend of BTC and Nasdaq before the interest rate cut in 2019.
The first rate cut was on July 31, 2019:
The first rate cut after maintaining a high interest rate for 7 months. The trend of BTC and Nasdaq is basically the same, except that BTC has a higher volatility. Both reached a new high one month before the rate cut.
BTC: After reaching a new high one month before the rate cut, it started a correction that lasted for a month. When the rate cut started, it continued to rise and tried to return to a new high, but the volume could not keep up, forming LPSY, which rose by 27% in a week.
Nasdaq: It started a one-month correction three months before the rate cut, then hit a new high before the rate cut, and started another correction when the rate cut was officially announced.
Second rate cut September 18, 2019:
BTC: It rose for a week when the first rate cut occurred, and after forming LPSY, it kept falling back to the price when the first rate cut was announced, until the second rate cut began, when it fell again.
Nasdaq: After the first rate cut, the price fell back and fluctuated within a range. When the second rate cut happened, the price had returned to the price at the time of the first rate cut. After the second rate cut was announced, the price fell again.
The third rate cut on October 30, 2019:
During the period of 2-3 interest rate cuts, the bottoming time period of BTC and Nasdaq was almost the same, with both bottoming out 2 months after the first interest rate cut was announced.
BTC: It pulled back again after the second rate cut was announced, and fell for a while before stopping the decline. When the third rate cut was announced, the price returned to the price of the first rate cut.
Nasdaq: Time and price trends are in sync with BTC.
About 312: 312 is a black swan and cannot be predicted, but BTC and Nasdaq have something in common in 312, that is, their prices almost synchronously retraced to the prices when the last interest rate hike was announced, BTC was 3928 and Nasdaq was 6284 (a difference of 5% in the retraced prices).
Then the conclusion of carving a boat to find a sword is:
1. The first three rate cuts were all in the correction phase. Previously, BTC had a higher volatility because there was no ETF. Now that there is an ETF, forces outside the circle have begun to intervene, and the volatility will definitely come down. So in this correction phase, just follow the Nasdaq.
2. If there is a black swan, BTC may go down to 29353 (the last rate hike on July 26, 2023). Of course, traders do not predict, they just follow. From the historical experience, this is only a directional content. After all, the black swan on March 12 is also the accumulation of multiple historical factors.
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