The first rate cut is indeed more critical and directly affects the subsequent rate cuts

The size of the Fed's first rate cut will affect the overall rate cut this year. If the Fed cuts by 25 basis points on Wednesday, Deutsche Bank expects the Fed's forecast to show a total rate cut of 75 basis points this year. If the Fed chooses to cut by 50 basis points, they expect a 100 basis point rate cut by the end of the year. According to Refinitiv data, there is still uncertainty about how much the Fed will cut this week, with money markets expecting a 59% chance of a 50 basis point cut and a 41% chance of a 25 basis point cut