The financial market is destined to be restless next week, as the long-awaited interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may come. The latest data from Fedwatch shows that swap market traders expect the probability of the Federal Reserve choosing a sharp interest rate cut next week to suddenly rise to 50%, while on September 12, Eastern Time, the probability was only 15%.
Affected by the Fed's expectations of a rate cut, global financial markets are now starting to perform. Among them, the US stock market rebounded strongly, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording their largest weekly gains so far this year, up 4% and 6% respectively; gold prices soared, with spot gold hitting record highs.
But many people may have overlooked another important financial event next week, that is, the Bank of Japan will hold a meeting on September 20 (Friday) and announce its interest rate decision, which may hide a black swan. I believe that most people have not forgotten the global financial Black Monday triggered by the unexpected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in early August, and this mine is still there.
On Wednesday, September 11, Bank of Japan board member Junko Nakagawa hinted that a rate hike was still under consideration. This may also be foreshadowing the decision-making content of this Friday's meeting. In view of recent domestic inflation data in Japan and some signals released by Bank of Japan officials, the market expects that Japan still has room for further rate hikes this year, and it is generally believed that it will be in December this year.
Why does the interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan have such a huge impact on the global financial market? Japan has long implemented an ultra-loose monetary policy, and its low interest rate policy has a profound impact on the global financial system. Japan is one of the world's major economies, and its long-term low interest rates have led to a large amount of international capital borrowing yen to seek higher-yield investment opportunities around the world for arbitrage. The sudden interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has changed this market expectation, prompting capital to flow back and leading to a repricing of global assets. In addition, the scale of Japan's government debt is huge, and interest rate hikes may increase the debt repayment burden, which in turn affects the global bond market. At the same time, the yen exchange rate has also fluctuated, which has a chain reaction on the international trade and investment environment. Therefore, changes in Japan's monetary policy have not only a profound impact on the domestic economy, but also have an impact on global capital flows and financial market stability.
The current cryptocurrency industry has been fully integrated into the global financial system, especially after the Federal Reserve approved the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. The liquidity crisis brought about by the yen rate hike will inevitably affect the cryptocurrency industry. We can see this from the plunge of Bitcoin after the last yen rate hike. On August 5, affected by the yen rate hike, Bitcoin fell by more than 8% on the day, with the highest drop reaching 15%.
Therefore, the interest rate policy of the Bank of Japan next week will inevitably affect the crypto industry again, so everyone should be mentally prepared. However, in the long run, the cryptocurrency industry still has very good development prospects, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic.
