[Interest rate derivatives traders expect the benchmark interest rate to fall to about 2.75% by the end of next year] Golden Finance reported that interest rate derivatives traders now expect the benchmark interest rate to fall to about 2.75% by the end of next year, from about 5.25% currently. This is equivalent to ten interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each, and the Fed may only take such measures in the event of a recession. Although few people on Wall Street predict a recession will occur soon, most agree that the risk of a recession is higher now than a few months ago.