When will BTC's market share peak? When will the altcoin season come?
In the fourth quarter of this year, BTC's market share (BTC.D) is expected to peak. Looking back at the last cycle, BTC.D peaked after the Fed's second rate cut, which was also the key node for the Fed to shift from balance sheet reduction to expansion.
The logic is actually very simple: in the currency circle, BTC's position is like the role of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market. During the period of balance sheet reduction (QT), funds tend to flow into BTC, seeking relative stability; while during the period of balance sheet expansion (QE), funds flock to altcoins, chasing higher risk returns. Therefore, 2025/2026 will be the best opportunity window for altcoins.
