1. Authur Hays’ Divine Prophecy
On September 6, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes issued a warning on social media, predicting that Bitcoin could fall below the psychological level of $50,000 over the weekend.
Hayes not only predicted it, but also took action. He publicly stated that he opened a short position in Bitcoin with the intention of taking advantage of the possible downside. This move further exacerbated market tensions and sparked discussions about the influence of large exchanges.
Image source: Arthur Hayes Twitter
The subsequent market trend seemed to confirm Hayes' prediction. From September 6 to 7, Bitcoin did experience a significant decline, with a drop of 7.14%, reaching a low of around $52,575. This trend was highly consistent with Hayes' prediction, further strengthening the market's confidence in his judgment.
However, just two days later, Hayes made another move. On September 8, he announced that he had closed his short position in Bitcoin, making a profit of 3%. He explained that the profit was enough to cover his food and bar bills at KBW (possibly referring to an event or venue). More importantly, Hayes turned to predict that Bitcoin could rebound next week.
Image source: Arthur Hayes Twitter
Behind Hayes's changing attitude towards the market is his in-depth analysis of the macroeconomic situation. He mentioned U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's attention to the market and the possible increase in U.S. dollar liquidity. Hayes believes that the current weakness in the economy and financial markets may prompt the Federal Reserve to take action to increase liquidity, which in turn may drive up Bitcoin prices.
This series of events demonstrates Hayes' influence and keen insight in the cryptocurrency market. Not only can he accurately predict short-term market trends, but he can also quickly adjust strategies and make new judgments based on macroeconomic factors. However, this also raises a question: Will the predictions of industry leaders like Hayes become self-fulfilling prophecies due to their influence?
In any case, while investors are paying attention to these "bigwigs' predictions", they also need to think independently, comprehensively analyze market factors, and make their own judgments.
2. Who is Authur Hayes?
Arthur Hayes is a cryptocurrency entrepreneur and investor who is best known for founding the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX. Born in the Rust Belt region of the United States, an area known for its industrial decline, his upbringing contrasts with that of FTX founder SBF, who comes from an elite social class. Hayes' background gives him a unique understanding and perspective on finance and economics, and his experiences make him aware of the limitations of the traditional financial system and spark his interest in cryptocurrency. Hayes excelled in education and received a good higher education, which laid the foundation for his later career.
Image credit: Jackierobinson
Arthur Hayes entered the blockchain industry in 2014 when he realized the potential of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. He co-founded BitMEX with his colleagues. BitMEX is known for its high leverage trading, which allows users to trade large amounts with minimal capital, which attracts a large number of investors and traders. His marketing strategy and personalized brand image made BitMEX stand out in a highly competitive market. Although BitMEX has achieved great success in a short period of time, Hayes has also faced many legal and regulatory challenges. As BitMEX's user base continued to expand, regulators began to pay attention to its operating model. Hayes was accused of violating US banking laws, failing to effectively prevent money laundering, and failing to follow relevant compliance requirements when accepting customers. These allegations triggered an investigation into BitMEX, and Hayes' reputation was affected.
Hayes experienced many difficulties and challenges in his fight with the U.S. government. Facing multiple felony charges, he chose to leave the United States and eventually settled in Japan. In Japan, Hayes lived a relatively secretive life, enjoying leisure activities such as skiing while thinking about his future direction. His experience reflects the turbulence and uncertainty of the cryptocurrency industry, and many industry leaders have faced similar legal challenges. Hayes' story is not only a personal struggle, but also a microcosm of the entire cryptocurrency industry under regulatory pressure.
Hayes is positive about Bitcoin, and believes that Bitcoin is an effective tool to fight against the traditional financial system. He once said that Bitcoin is not only an investment asset, but also a symbol of financial freedom. He is optimistic about the future of cryptocurrency and believes that the market will continue to grow as more people understand and accept this technology.
Hayes is a major figure in the cryptocurrency industry in general, having helped to advance derivatives trading through the success of BitMEX.
3. Arthur Hayes’ predictions on macroeconomics and Bitcoin prices
The current market view is that the United States may take measures to cut interest rates or increase money supply. Just last month, at the highly anticipated Jackson Hole Annual Economic Policy Symposium, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said, "Now is the time to adjust policy," a statement that triggered market speculation that European and American central banks may turn to an easing cycle.
The meeting also sent a positive signal: the hope of achieving a "soft landing" of the economy seems to be emerging. Powell's statement hints at a possible major shift in the Fed's policy. In the past few years, in response to high inflation after the epidemic, the Fed has adopted an aggressive interest rate hike policy. Now, as inflationary pressures gradually ease, policymakers may be considering adjusting this tightening strategy.
Image credit: Drew Angerer
Hayes said on social media: "If traditional markets continue to fall, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen is likely to respond by printing more money, which could exacerbate market chaos." This view suggests that the U.S. government may take measures to stimulate the economy, which tends to push up the prices of assets such as Bitcoin.
This view is supported by other market analysts. Jamie Coutts, chief cryptocurrency analyst at Real Vision, pointed out that the M2 money supply (including all cash and short-term bank deposits in the United States) is highly correlated with the Bitcoin bull market cycle. Coutts emphasized that the rate of change of the money supply is more critical than its absolute value. It is worth noting that in early May 2023, the M2 money supply turned positive year-on-year for the first time since November last year, which may indicate that investors will begin to look for tools to hedge inflation, such as Bitcoin.
However, market sentiment is not all positive. According to CoinGlass, September is historically the worst performing month for Bitcoin, with an average return of -4.69%.
Overall, although short-term market sentiment tends to be pessimistic, from the perspective of macroeconomic policies and historical cyclicality, the medium- and long-term prospects of Bitcoin remain optimistic. The possible loose monetary policy of the United States, changes in the M2 supply, and the cyclical characteristics of Bitcoin itself may all provide support for future price increases.
However, investors should still be careful: the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market means that any forecast is uncertain. When making investment decisions, multiple factors should be considered comprehensively, rather than relying solely on a single point of view or historical pattern.
