At 8 pm on September 10, in a live broadcast on Matrixport's official YouTube channel, Daniel, head of Matrixport's asset management, analyzed the comprehensive reasons why the BTC price re-broke through $57,000 this week (September 9-September 15), and how investors can obtain greater returns in a one-sided market.
The live broadcast content is as follows
On September 10, the cryptocurrency market continued its rebound momentum, with BTC prices breaking through $57,000 again, and market sentiment has recovered. Although this rally has boosted investor confidence, potential uncertainties and risks in the market still exist. Matrixport’s latest structured product for unilateral markets, Seagull, provides investors with a new income strategy in unilateral market conditions.
Analysis of the causes of market fluctuations
Market reaction to Fed rate cut expectations
Recent discussions about the Federal Reserve's possible 50 basis point rate cut have attracted widespread attention in the market. This expectation has boosted risk assets such as BTC in the short term. This is because rate cuts usually mean increased liquidity and lower funding costs, which may encourage more investors to shift funds from traditional markets to high-risk assets such as BTC. However, due to the increasing uncertainty in the global economy, the market remains cautious about the long-term effects of the rate cut policy. Investors should pay close attention to future economic data, employment conditions, and the Federal Reserve's policy statements to avoid excessive optimism due to short-term positives. At the same time, against the backdrop of rising global inflation, tight supply chains, and increased geopolitical risks, investors need to remain vigilant about the long-term market trend.
BTC technical rebound
On September 10, the BTC price broke through $56,500 and further rose to $57,000. This rebound boosted some market sentiment, and some investors saw it as a signal that the market was back on an upward trend. However, this rise was more of a technical rebound, a correction after the previous market was oversold, and lacked sufficient positive catalyst support. Therefore, the sustainability of this rebound still needs further observation. Investors should remain cautious in the current market environment and not blindly chase the rise. They should combine technical analysis with changes in market sentiment and carefully assess possible callback risks to avoid being significantly affected by short-term market fluctuations.
Long-term holder supply hits new high
The supply of BTC to long-term holders exceeded 4 million for the first time. This data shows that more and more investors choose to hold BTC for the long term and reduce short-term speculation. The increase in long-term holders shows investors' confidence in the long-term value of BTC, which helps stabilize the market and reduce panic selling caused by short-term fluctuations. This trend will help ease the liquidity pressure in the market and provide stable support for the future price trend of BTC. In addition, as the confidence of long-term investors increases, the BTC market may attract more institutional investors in the future.
The potential link between politics and market volatility
The upcoming US presidential election and Trump's campaign have become market catalysts that cannot be ignored in the coming months. If Trump is re-elected, the market expects that his policies may push investors to turn their funds to safe-haven assets such as BTC. Political dynamics will become an important factor in future BTC market fluctuations. Investors should pay close attention to developments in this regard and prepare corresponding market response strategies.
Market liquidity and volatility increased
The recent market shows a trend of declining liquidity and increasing volatility. BTC’s short-term rebound occurred under the condition of low market liquidity, which increases the market’s fragility. Investors should pay special attention to risk management in the current high volatility environment, flexibly adjust investment strategies to cope with possible drastic market changes, and avoid unnecessary losses when liquidity is insufficient.
The impact of ETF fund flows on the market
Continued outflows from ETFs have put significant selling pressure on the market, especially against the backdrop of weak U.S. market performance. This phenomenon further weakens market liquidity and may continue to put pressure on market prices in the short term. Although the current outflow of ETF funds has a certain negative impact on the market, as more and more institutional investors gradually enter the BTC market, liquidity problems are expected to be alleviated in the long term. The addition of institutional funds will bring more stability and confidence to the market.
Options Market and Institutional Behavior in the Current Context
Analyzing multiple technical indicators (such as 25 Delta Skew, implied volatility curve), it can be seen that although short-term market sentiment is still cautious, investors are still optimistic about the market trend in the long run. Due to the increase in speculation and hedging activities in the market, volatility may continue in the short term. Therefore, investors are advised to remain patient in the current environment and consider a long-term holding strategy.
Investment directions to watch
Using financial instruments for market hedging
In the current complex market environment, investors should adopt a prudent investment attitude. Global macroeconomic uncertainty has increased, and geopolitical factors may pose further volatility risks to the market. Investors are advised to adopt a diversified investment strategy, rationally allocate assets, and reduce dependence on a single market to cope with potential market fluctuations. By diversifying investments among multiple assets, investors can effectively reduce the risk of the overall portfolio and improve their ability to cope with market uncertainties. During periods of high market volatility, investors can use financial instruments such as options and ETFs for risk management and hedging. Option tools can be used to hedge market uncertainty and volatility, while ETFs provide a relatively stable investment channel. Investors should avoid excessive trading and maintain a moderate investment strategy, especially when the market is subject to frequent short-term fluctuations. By using hedging tools rationally, investors can better avoid short-term risks while retaining long-term investment opportunities.
Pay attention to volatility and consider long-term holding strategies
Although the market rebounded, it did not return to its previous highs. In the short term, the market still needs more time to confirm the sustainability of the rebound. In terms of the long-term trend, market sentiment remains relatively optimistic. Market participants are still taking advantage of market declines to reduce holding costs or increase long exposure, showing confidence in future long-term trends. However, volatility may continue in the short term due to increased speculation and hedging activities in the market. Therefore, investors are advised to remain patient in the current environment and consider long-term holding strategies.
Proper use of tools to enhance unilateral market benefits
In view of the current high volatility and obvious one-sided market conditions, Matrixport has launched Seagull, a product suitable for one-sided markets. Based on the option combination strategy, Seagull combines the characteristics of "dual currency" and "trend smart profit", and is divided into two versions: bullish and bearish. It allows investors to choose suitable strategies according to market expectations and determine different settlement methods according to the range of expiration prices.
For example, taking the beginning of September 2024 as an example, the current price of BTC is 56,500 $, and you invested in the Seagull Bullish BTC-USDT product with a base price of 58,000 $, a maximum profit price of greater than or equal to 58,500 $, and an expected annualized return of 18.85% to 279%. When the expiration price of BTC rises to above $58,000 (including $58,000), the product can provide an annualized return of up to 279%; when the expiration price of BTC is between $56,500 and $58,000, it can provide an annualized return of 18.85%; when the expiration price of BTC is between $58,000 and $58,500, it can provide an annualized return of 18.85% to 279%; and if the expiration price of BTC falls below $56,500, the product also provides a protection mechanism for opening positions at a discount and reducing holdings at a premium, which will provide an annualized return of 18.85% and purchase BTC at a price of $56,500.
Seagull has three significant highlights: First, Seagull is a unilateral market income structured product. Regardless of whether the market is rising or falling, investors can obtain considerable returns by correctly judging the market trend. Under the bullish strategy, if the market continues to rise, investors will be able to lock in high returns; while under the bearish strategy, if the market falls, investors can also ensure the appreciation of their assets; second, Haiou’s multi-level income structure The ability to provide flexible returns within different price ranges ensures that investors have income opportunities under various market conditions. When the market price exceeds a certain point, investors will receive higher annualized returns, and when the market remains within a certain range, investors can also enjoy basic returns. This flexibility allows Haiou to adapt to different market conditions, ensuring that investors have the opportunity to earn profits in any market environment; third, Haiou has a low investment threshold of only 100 USDT, 0.01 BTC or 0.1 ETH, which makes it Ideal for both novice and experienced investors. Whether it's a small investor looking to try a new strategy or a large investor seeking new income opportunities, Haiou can meet their needs.
It should be noted that although Seagull performs well in a one-sided market, its returns are capped. In extreme market conditions, investors may not be able to fully capture all market gains. In addition, although Seagull products provide certain downside protection, investors may still face potential loss risks when the market falls sharply. Therefore, when using Seagull, investors should reasonably allocate assets and flexibly adjust investment strategies based on their own risk tolerance.
For more exciting content, please check out the YouTube content replay: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjyGAmdZLFY
About Matrixport Weekly Market Insights
[Matrixport Weekly Market Insights] is a new interactive knowledge sharing column launched by Matrixport, which is broadcast live on the official YouTube channel of Matrixport every week. This column will regularly invite industry product leaders, top analysts and KOLs to discuss investment logic under different market conditions, share investment experiences, and help users realize asset appreciation.
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Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, and other countries or regions where such offers or solicitations may be prohibited by law. Digital asset trading may be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
