The current volatility of Bitcoin is somewhat similar to that of 2019, but this does not mean that the script of 2019 will be completely copied. The following points illustrate this similarity and difference:
1. Timing of interest rate cuts: The interest rate cuts in 2019 occurred earlier, and the market peaked soon after that rate cut. However, the interest rate cuts have not yet begun, which is different from 2019.
2. Market adjustment range: The market in 2019 experienced a sharp adjustment from $14,000 to $6,500, while the current adjustment from $73,800 to $49,000 is smaller, and the intensity of the wash is different.
3. Performance of US stocks: The rebound in 2019 was driven by the bull market in US stocks, and US stocks continued to set new highs.
Now, US stocks have not yet recovered to their previous highs, and the overall performance is slightly weak. Therefore, a direct comparison with the situation in 2019 may not be applicable.
In general, although the current market conditions are somewhat similar to those in 2019, due to the different macroeconomic environment and market conditions, future trends cannot be completely predicted based on the 2019 model.
