The 10 trillion asset management giant made a grand speech! Trump’s victory rate unexpectedly reverses
Jean Boivin, chief strategist at BlackRock Investment Institute, pointed out in the latest report: "There are many factors behind the market volatility, including recession concerns caused by weak economic data, tensions before the U.S. election, and investor appetite for new stocks. Issuance makes room for profit taking.”
They further noted: "We do not expect the Fed to cut policy rates as sharply as the market expects."
The latest data shows that the annual rate of consumer price index (CPI) inflation in the United States fell to 2.5% in August from 2.9% in July, hitting the lowest point since April 2018.
Although the annual core CPI rate (excluding the impact of food and energy prices) was flat at 3.2% in August, in line with expectations, the monthly CPI rose by 0.2% and the core CPI rose by 0.3%, both exceeding market expectations and setting the largest increase in four months.
Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors, said the report significantly weakened expectations for a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, but it was still not enough to stop the possibility of a rate cut.
The market is widely expected to announce an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its policy meeting on September 17, marking the first rate cut since the outbreak and heralding a new cycle of lower borrowing costs and increased liquidity.
However, last week’s August non-farm payrolls report showed 142,000 new jobs, which was far lower than market expectations, triggering a plunge in Bitcoin prices.
The signal that the job market is slowing has heightened concerns that the Federal Reserve may delay cutting interest rates, triggering an economic recession.
Growth concerns and falling inflation have pushed 10-year Treasury yields to 15-month lows, with investors expecting more than 100 basis points of interest rate cuts by the end of the year, with the total rate cuts likely to reach about 240 basis points over the next 12 months, suggesting that The Federal Reserve will take steps to combat the economic downturn. "
When it comes to the US election, Trump appears to be at a disadvantage after Wednesday's televised presidential debate. According to data from Polymarket, a large cryptocurrency betting platform, Vice President Harris’ November winning rate has risen to 50%, while Trump fell to 49%, an unexpected reversal. The two men did not mention cryptocurrencies at all during the debate.
