1. Has the cow finished walking?
First of all, we need to judge whether the bull market has ended or is still in the adjustment stage.
First, we look at the historical adjustment phases, one is May-September 2023, and the other is May-August 2021. The adjustment months are 6 months and 4 months, and the closing period is 3 months.
Secondly, if we look at the historical bull market peaks and bear market adjustment months, such as 2018 and 2022, they are basically 15 months, and the months with negative closings are as high as 10 months.
Combined with the overall market situation, there is an expectation of interest rate cuts in the future, so the probability of a direct bear market is very low, unless the interest rate cut is accompanied by an economic recession. The negative impact of the economic recession is greater, and it directly turns into an economic depression.
Of course, you can say that this bull market adjustment is probably the most painful one in history. It is not an exaggeration to say that the adjustment has been going on for 4 times, or that it has lasted for 7 months. Except for Bitcoin, the decline of other currencies is basically no different from experiencing a bear market.
However, for Bitcoin, we still have to judge that it has reached its peak. Now is an adjustment period rather than a bear market.
Secondly, look at the waves. If five waves are completed now, this is how it is drawn.
The problem is that the wave theory has three necessary conditions: the adjustment end point of wave 2 cannot be lower than the starting point of wave 1, the adjustment of wave 4 cannot be lower than the high point of wave 3, and wave 3 cannot be the shortest. Here, wave 3 is obviously the shortest, which is not in line with reality.
Therefore, our real main rising wave 3 should be from 28,000 US dollars to 70,000 US dollars, which is wave 3. Therefore, it is almost certain that we are in the adjustment wave 4, and we are still short of wave 5. Whether it is the interest rate cut at the macroeconomic level or the ETF passed this year, the bull market should not be too "faceless".
When will the adjustment of waves 2 and 4 end and to where will it end?
Based on our current assumptions, waves 1, 2, and 3 have already completed. The only question now is how long and how deep the adjustment of wave 4 will take, that is, when wave 5 will start. And after wave 5 starts, how high and how far can it rise?
Here is the basic setting of the wave theory. The adjustment of wave 2 to wave 1, if the template is 0.382, the adjustment of wave 4 to wave 3 should be (1-0.382). Based on this assumption, we can see that the adjustment of wave 2 to wave 1 in this round is about 0.5, and the adjustment of wave 4 to wave 3 should also be 0.5.
We draw the Fibonacci and find that the decline of 49,000 USD some time ago is just around 0.5, right? Then why didn’t the 4th wave adjustment end last month? From a macro perspective, the real benefits of the interest rate cut have not yet arrived, and the other needs a second bottoming out. Therefore, the decline of 52,000 USD some time ago may be a second bottoming out, and of course it may also bottom out for the third time.
3. When will the 5th wave of bull market start and where will the 5th wave go?
In any case, we can predict that the 4th wave of adjustment is coming to an end. I personally predict that it is likely to be in October. We have followed up on several relatively cautious blockchain game projects before, and the project owners have been reluctant to make big moves, whether it is coin distribution or TGE.
We have also heard recently that there are plans for big moves in October.
Then the next question is where can wave 5 go.
The 5 waves are divided into failed 5 waves and successful 5 waves.
The failed 5th wave will not exceed the high point of the 3rd wave. Then the following cases are: 5th wave = 1st wave or 5th wave = (1st wave - 3rd wave) 0.382, 0.5, 0.618 times. If this is followed, it will not exceed 70,000 US dollars. I think the probability of this happening is extremely low.
What about the successful 5th wave? When 3 waves = 1 wave, then 5th wave = 0.618, 1.618 or 2 times of 1st wave. If the former, the high point of Bitcoin will be locked between 63,000 and 80,000 US dollars. But now 3 waves ≠ 1 wave, so 5th wave is either equal to 1st wave or 3rd wave. Of course, the probability of 3rd wave is greater. Then, from 49,000 US dollars to 48,000 US dollars, it is almost 100,000 US dollars.
From another perspective, if we assume that there will be a fifth wave sooner or later in the future, it will inevitably break through the previous suppression of 73,000 US dollars. Then the current structure will be a head and shoulders bottom. Based on this, we draw the price track, and the target position of the upper track is 100,000 US dollars, which is consistent with this price.
Of course, there is no top in a bull market, and we cannot say that 100,000 is the precise upper limit. As for how high it is, we still have to wait for the market to come out. When the top structure really appears, it is time for us to run away. So be sure to pay attention to my channel, this time I will definitely help you escape the top.
