We have been saying for days that today represents a critical period for crypto investors. The time has come. Today is the last day to appeal the SEC's court decision regarding the conversion of GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF. So what happens if the SEC doesn't appeal the court decision?

SEC and GBTC Case

U.S. securities regulator SEC today announced in D.C. He should appeal the case he lost to the Court of Appeals. If he doesn't object, there are two paths ahead of him. We have said this before. He will either approve GBTC's transformation into a spot #Bitcoin ETF or find a new excuse.

The decision in favor of Grayscale Investments puts legal pressure on the SEC to re-examine #GBTC 's application for conversion to ETF. Many observers do not believe the securities regulator will appeal the decision. Grayscale, which has the full support of its members, has a very strong hand. Moreover, the SEC made its biggest mistake in the case by focusing on price speculation. Could not prove the difference in price speculation between Futures ETF and Spot ETF. This prevented GBTC from being rejected with old excuses.

Will Spot Bitcoin ETF Be Approved?

As we said, there are three paths that the SEC must follow. He has to choose one of these. If he asks the Court of Appeals to reconsider its decision, he will most likely not get the answer he wants. If it does not, it will reconsider Grayscale's proposal to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot Bitcoin ETF, according to a court decision issued in August.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas explained his predictions about what will happen:

“We think an appeal is a remote possibility. But there's always the possibility of something else happening."

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said in a separate article that the SEC's attempt to reject on new grounds was unlikely, but there were ways to delay approvals. So the SEC will eventually approve it. Let's remember the letter of the 4 Representatives last month, where it was written as follows;

“As an institution, you cannot explain your current attitude in the future. “Comply with the court order for Spot Bitcoin ETF approval and do not resist any further.”

Law firm Ropes & Gray said in its prediction about what will happen next that the SEC will find a new rejection argument. But wait, if the SEC had a stronger argument other than price, why didn't they use it in the GBTC case? Why didn't GBTC destroy its hopes by rejecting existing ETFs with this argument and instead strengthened its communication with existing applicants?

According to Bloomberg analysts, the probability of ETF approval this year is 75 percent and 2024 estimates are at 95 percent. If the SEC wants to extend the process, it may request a new application for GBTC. Thus, it saves 8 months of time.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should carry out their transactions in line with their own research.