ChainCatcher news: The fiercely competitive US presidential election has gradually faded from people's sight, and investors' attention is focused on the Federal Reserve meeting on September 18. Any policy mistakes may disrupt the market that is already nervous due to signs of slowing economic growth.
“The main near-term focus of the market is likely to be the Federal Reserve and the start of a rate-cutting cycle,” said Rocky Fishman, founder of derivatives analytics firm Asym 500. “While equity options reflect elevated risk around Election Day, actual trading volume in stocks with election-related expiries has been limited.”
Traders are also awaiting Tuesday's debate between Harris and Trump before further finalizing their bets on who will win the race. Investors will analyze the candidates' positions on issues including tariffs, immigration policy and corporate taxes.
John Divine, head of over-the-counter trading at BlockFills, a trading and technology company in the digital asset space, said Bitcoin’s short-term positioning is unusually bleak.
"The bets right now are bearish until October 25 and slightly bullish before the election," he said. "When we look at November, we start to see calls being bid higher than puts, but that's not the case, which to me is pretty shocking and highlights how panicked the market is right now."
Divine added that while Trump is more favored by the crypto market, the line of who is more supportive of the crypto industry is becoming increasingly blurred. “I think the market is not entirely trading on the winner of the November election. It’s more that they are using the event to push a narrative that fits their current bearish stance.”
