I don't know if you remember that I predicted this conspiracy a long time ago, so I waited until the price fell back to 52,000 and bought the spot twice.

At present, I still acted too early. I greatly underestimated the range of fluctuations in this bull market. The short-term market has long been beyond my control. The probability of unreasonable volume and price basically reached more than 60%.

To be honest, this is a strange point for me. I rarely encounter this situation, or in other words, except for the breakthrough of 52,000 on BTC, it is now. My judgment on BTC has always been based on volume, price and Dow, and I rarely miss it.

But I want to say that frequent unreasonable volume and price did not cause the market to completely fall below the range, but continued to fluctuate. What does this mean?

There are only two reasons for the arrival of a bear market: 1. Insufficient demand 2. Expansion of supply.

Here I clearly see the expansion of supply, and I also see insufficient demand. This should be the characteristic of a bear market. I admit it, but I always feel something is strange, because I have never seen such a boring bull market top.

I remember that Wyckoff described the "buying climax": the key is whether the rise breaks through an important resistance level. If so, it is a normal rise. If not, it is a buying climax.

I always like to do the transaction in reverse, and I always like to turn the words around: we see the expansion of supply, we also see the lack of demand, but the decline has not fallen below the shock range, this is not a bear market! #BTC走势分析