Today's red envelope is here #红包

Is the possibility of a rate cut in September greater?

Michael Reid, an economist at RBC Capital Markets, pointed out:

If the unemployment rate in the United States rises to 4.4%, a 50 basis point rate cut will become a very likely scenario. However, he also mentioned that if the unemployment rate falls and job growth remains at 100,000 or more, the Fed will be cautious about a large rate cut. Especially with the presidential election approaching, the Fed may be accused of boosting the economy by cutting interest rates, thereby favoring the ruling party.

Futures market estimates:

- The Fed will have its first 25 basis point rate cut this month.

- The cumulative rate cut this year will reach 1 percentage point.

- There will be several more 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025.