Final analysis before the September rate cut: a precursor to a sharp drop! ?

Two conclusions are given directly: First, if a 25 basis point rate cut is announced in September, it is in line with expectations. It is not bad for the current environment, nor is it good, so more trends need to be seen in conjunction with economic indicators, including the unemployment rate in the past half month, non-agricultural data tomorrow night, etc.

Second, if a 50 basis point rate cut is announced in September, it is not necessarily good. This shows that the United States has announced an economic recession, which is bad to some extent. For example, after 312 in 2020, after the extreme market conditions appeared, the U.S. stock market circuit breaker broke out and the interest rate was cut by 50 basis points. This also means that unless there is an extreme market before the meeting, this interest rate cut does not want a large interest rate cut.

In other words, if the first interest rate cut is 50 basis points, it is equivalent to admitting an economic recession or even admitting that the U.S. economy is in crisis. This will directly create anxiety in the market, not only affecting the currency market, U.S. stocks and other capital markets, but also having a certain impact on the real economy and foreign trade.

Third, but there is no third option. It is impossible to raise interest rates, and the possibility of not lowering interest rates is almost zero. So overall, the rate cut is biased towards 25 basis points.

Finally, how can the market eliminate the impact of economic recession? In fact, as long as the interest rate cut is announced, whether it is a soft landing or a hard landing, the market will face the digestion of this news. We need to wait until the expectation of economic recession gradually weakens and the overall economy recovers after the first interest rate cut before we can see what we call a big bull market. $BTC $ETH $BNB #美联储何时降息？