Author: Climber, Golden Finance
On September 4, the crypto market fell again. BTC dropped to around $55,600, and altcoins were even worse, with the decline catching up with last year's bear market. Regarding the market trend in the last four months of this year, various institutions and celebrities have different views on the long and short positions, and short-term and long-term investment suggestions are also different.
However, in general, the key factors that are most likely to affect the crypto market in the future are: Fed rate cuts, elections, SEC regulatory strategies, FTX debt repayment schedule, US stock and technology stock trends, US Bitcoin ETF fund flows, halving cycles, etc. Especially in anticipation of rate cuts and halvings, many investors and institutions have adopted early deployment methods, but some analysts still say that they should pay attention to short-term risks, and BTC may pull back to the range of 400-500 million US dollars.
In this regard, Golden Finance has collected and collated the opinions of celebrities from representative institutions and recent positive and negative events, in order to have a clearer understanding of the future crypto market trends.
Bullish and positive events
Bullish:
ETC Group Research Director: Bitcoin's illiquid supply reached 74% of the total, a record high, indicating that the supply shock caused by the halving is actually intensifying, which will bring increasing impetus to Bitcoin and other crypto assets in the coming months.
Grayscale: If the dollar weakens and interest rates continue to fall, it will be good for Bitcoin. The main downside risk to crypto valuations is a further rise in unemployment and a possible recession, but U.S. policymakers will start to release money and promote consumption when there are signs of a recession.
Rekt Capital analyst: Bitcoin's historical performance in October is usually very strong. Data shows that Bitcoin has only experienced declines in October of 2014 and 2018, both of which were in a bear market cycle. At present, the market is in the year of Bitcoin's halving cycle. Historically, Bitcoin has only seen a single-digit increase in October in 2018 (also a bear market year). Apart from this, October usually brings double-digit increases, with an average increase of 22%.
Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto: Bitcoin price is expected to reach $110,000 in 2025. Bitcoin is forming a "cup and handle" pattern, a bullish chart pattern that suggests prices may rise in the future. BTC highs will occur in the fourth quarter of 2024 and may reach $100,000 in the first quarter of 2025.
Bitfinex analyst: A 25 basis point rate cut could herald the start of a typical easing cycle, while a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut could cause an immediate surge in Bitcoin prices, but could be followed by a pullback as recession concerns grow.
QCP Capital: Bitcoin may have strong support at $54,000, and the options market still shows medium-term bullish signals. The report also mentioned that this week's unemployment benefit application data (September 5) and non-farm payrolls report (September 6) may not have a significant impact on cryptocurrency prices, as the impact of recent macroeconomic data on cryptocurrencies has weakened.
Analyst: Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin's average hash rate has been growing steadily over the past year and will see significant growth in 2024. Historically, the hash rate has generally moved in line with Bitcoin's price movements, reflecting miners' confidence and more optimistic market sentiment.
CryptoQuant analyst: The on-chain indicator Bitcoin Puell Multiple Index shows that Bitcoin is close to a "favorable" buying level. In addition, the low price of Bitcoin computing power may suggest that the BTC price is close to the bottom.
Glassnode: Bitcoin’s net realized profit/loss indicator stabilized in the second half of this year, indicating that a balance has been reached between profits and losses as the market matures after the halving.
Real Vision's chief crypto analyst: Bitcoin may reach $150,000 by the end of 2024, and Bitcoin's price trend is expected to enter a "crazy season."
Positive events:
Russia allows the use of cryptocurrencies for international trade.
The U.S. SEC no longer seeks to restart hedge fund trading fee disclosure rules.
Zurich Cantonal Bank Launches Bitcoin and Crypto Products.
Metaplanet has partnered with the crypto arm of Japanese financial giant SBI to continue to increase its holdings of Bitcoin. Metaplanet has acquired 360 Bitcoins ($207 million) to date, using its main reserve asset as collateral to enhance its ability to obtain equity and debt financing.
Data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a monthly net inflow of 975 BTC in August, and the number of addresses holding more than 100 Bitcoins reached 16,120, a 17-month high.
The Venezuelan president has proposed returning to the cryptocurrency path and may renew a crypto-friendly stance in the future.
Cryptocurrency losses fell to an all-time low of $15 million in August.
Starbucks accepts Bitcoin as payment in El Salvador.
Greeks.live macro researcher: Cryptocurrency has entered a correction trend, whale users have begun to deploy long positions, and the number of large call options has increased, with most expiration dates selected at the end of September and the end of October.
Bearish and Negative Events
Bearish:
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes: If interest rates rise again and market liquidity tightens, Bitcoin may face another pullback.
Trader T: Institutional investment in Bitcoin and its derivatives was not active in August. The MSTR-BTC data showed an upward sentiment of +1.1x and a downward sentiment of -1.3x. MSTR-BTC sentiment refers to the market's view and expectation on the correlation between MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock and Bitcoin (BTC). Sentiment means that the market has a certain degree of inclination towards the correlation between MicroStrategy and Bitcoin.
Bitfinex reports: A 15-20% drop is possible when the rate cut occurs this month, and the bottom of Bitcoin may be between $40,000 and $50,000.
Wolfe Research analyst: Bitcoin may first pull back to below $50,000 before a potential rise in 2025. Bitcoin may return to the bottom of the range, the $50,000 low area, in the coming weeks. Unless there are major changes, Bitcoin will continue to remain bearish in the short to medium term.
10x Research: Potential short squeeze pushes up Bitcoin price in the near term, but may face risks in September.
BTC Markets analysts: The crypto market may fall due to a combination of factors including the "September effect", due to portfolio rebalancing, tax-loss profits and increased caution before the US election.
Kaiko, a crypto data provider: The crypto market is currently facing a serious oversupply problem, which may continue to depress BTC prices. Other major holders may also increase selling pressure in the near future. For example, the US government holds more than $2 billion worth of Bitcoin, and other countries including the United Kingdom, China, and Ukraine also have large Bitcoin reserves.
Citi: ETF flows may continue to be disappointing until the market becomes clear on the outcome of the U.S. economic landing.
Analyst Ali: BTC has been struggling to break through $63,250 since June 22. This price level often acts as resistance because short-term holders are more inclined to sell when the price falls below the entry point.
CryptoQuant: From a price perspective, if the Bitcoin price falls below $56,000, the risk of a larger correction increases.
Negative events:
According to Farside Investors data, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF suffered the largest outflow in nearly four months on September 3, and market sentiment was depressed. Investors from Wall Street banks and hedge funds still held Bitcoin ETFs in the second quarter, but overall fund flows were weak.
Matrixport: South Korea's cryptocurrency trading volume hit a new low for the year last weekend.
Bitcoin miners' earnings in August hit a new low for the year.
Victory Securities: Funding Rates indicate that short positions in the contract market are stronger.
According to IntoTheBlock, Bitcoin faces continued selling pressure between $61,700 and $70,500. Since a large number of traders are losing money in this price range, Bitcoin faces continued selling pressure whenever it approaches this level, and many investors seek to break even. This is why it is difficult for Bitcoin to set new highs, and only strong momentum can break through this trend to reach new highs.
Spot on chain data shows that Bitcoin's performance in September has only been on the rise in three of the past 10 years.
The Block Pro data shows that the total on-chain transaction volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum fell by 15.3% in August to US$377 billion, of which Bitcoin's adjusted on-chain transaction volume fell by 12.1% and Ethereum's fell by 20.2%.
summary
In terms of the comparison between the long and short positions, the bullish sentiment does not overwhelmingly cover the bearish view. The current market perception is more inclined to believe that there is still a risk of decline before the interest rate cut, and several other major factors such as the election, the US economy, and regulation are still unclear, and the market trend may fluctuate violently at any time. However, institutions are generally optimistic about the long-term upward trend of the crypto market, and whales are also quietly making arrangements. In short, ordinary investors still need to be cautious in the current situation and always pay attention to market changes.
