Macro:
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report on Wednesday showing that the number of JOLTS job vacancies in the United States in July fell to the lowest level since early 2021, and the number of layoffs increased, which is consistent with other signs of a slowdown in the demand side of the labor market. After the release of the number of JOLTs job vacancies in the United States in July, the Federal Reserve's interest rate swaps showed that the Federal Reserve will further ease monetary policy in 2024.
On September 4, the U.S. Federal Reserve released the National Economic Conditions Survey Report (also known as the "Beige Book"). According to the "Beige Book", economic activity in three regions increased slightly, while the number of regions reporting flat or declining economic activity increased from 5 in July to 9 recently.
Rate cuts:
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 55.0%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 45.0%.
Moreover, the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in the near future is increasing.
US stock performance:
After a sharp drop on Tuesday, U.S. stocks rebounded last night, with the decline in the last 24 hours narrowing significantly.
Spot Bitcoin ETF:
Compared with the previous few days, the net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETF yesterday decreased significantly.
The net outflow of Ethereum spot ETF is also decreasing, but it is not obvious compared with No. 3.
Both the JOLTS job vacancy data released last night and the Beige Book released by the U.S. Federal Reserve are conducive to the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates and are good for the crypto market. Yesterday’s inflows and outflows of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF also demonstrated the confidence of institutional investors.
Tonight, we need to pay attention to several macroeconomic data indicators in the United States, such as the change in ADP non-farm payrolls, the number of initial unemployment claims, the S&P Global Services PMI and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. These indicators reflect the development of the US economy and are also important reference indicators for the Federal Reserve to make interest rate decisions.
Yesterday, Bitcoin fell below $56,000 at its lowest point. During the mainstream U.S. trading hours last night, it rebounded to around $58,400 at its highest point. Today, it has pulled back a bit, and today’s daytime market will be dominated by narrow fluctuations.
In terms of news, please pay attention to several indicators released by the United States tonight (several indicators will last from tonight until tomorrow morning). Affected by these indicators, market fluctuations tonight may be somewhat large. The data released tonight may be positive data, but based on recent market conditions, after the good news comes out, the market may fall to a certain extent. Please do a good job of risk control.
Ethereum: ETH may fluctuate upward during the day today, and the fluctuation will not be very large. We should mainly focus on the market after the United States releases some economic data tonight.
