Let's summarize the BTC market: the monthly and weekly lines are still in a downward trend, and we are looking for a second test. This second test is based on the weekly level. The daily line is not going very well. I still insist that 49,000 is not the bottom, so I don't plan to buy spot directly now, I will only do some short-term orders to relieve my itch. For trend, just buy before the real trend starts, such as October 23. In addition, the current market is very chaotic, and you must revise your views every week, instead of being determined in one direction and never looking back. The market is always right.

The script I wrote yesterday is also a possible corresponding strategy for the current market situation. If the third quarter goes up in a V-shape and then reaches new highs all the way, then it will be the last chance to escape. The high level here has stayed too long, but no corresponding accumulation of funds has been seen. Then there is only one possibility, which is another distribution. In that case, the market will not last long. If it can drop to around 4 (it does not mean it will really fall to 4, but it requires a high liquidity to complete the turnover), and the main players will change hands, the next wave of market will be taken over by new main players, so that there will be a more lasting market.

The structure of BTC has been very chaotic since March, with V-reversals back and forth and oscillations in a large range of 50,000-70,000. This market is very difficult to trade, and it also fully demonstrates that liquidity is decreasing (reduced liquidity will increase volatility because small funds can bring about large fluctuations), which is inconsistent with the consensus and the market is very divided. In the current market, you must revise your tracking and reading content every week.

Monthly Line:

BTC's monthly trend is not very good. If you look at the single August K, you can see a long lower shadow. Many people think this is a strong state, but they ignore two pieces of information: 1. The lows are getting lower and lower, and the main force has no intention of providing demand to buy chips at high levels. 2. The volume is still shrinking. The price has reached 49,000, but the trading volume is not as much as when the BTC ETF news appeared in October. The volume is US dollars, which is purchasing power. If the price of 49,000 is very reasonable, why didn't the global main force buy a large amount? Why didn't he go all in?

The K-line in August can only explain one problem. The main force is indeed interested in 49,000, but he is not fully invested and his interest is not very great. The stage when the main force rushes to buy chips is the stage before the trend starts. You can look at the BTC daily K in October 2023. Although it goes up and down every day, what remains unchanged is that there are high bottoms and high tops every day. This is the attitude of the main force. No matter how the market sells, the main force will buy and bid upwards to buy.

From the volume and price of the monthly K line, we can be sure of one thing: 49,000 is a point of interest for the main players. It is the first high point after the news of BTC ETF. Now there are main players willing to buy part of the position at 49,000, but it has not reached the buying state before the trend starts. The volume is US dollars, and the volume will not lie.

Weekly:

Several obvious information from the weekly chart:
A. When the price hit the top for the first time, the trading volume began to decline. The main players are not stupid. They naturally would not choose to buy BTC heavily in the 70,000 range, so the volume shrank severely, basically by 50%.
B. There are three pin rebounds. It can be clearly seen that the bottoms of 1, 2, and 3 are getting lower and lower, and the amplitude of the low point caused each time is getting larger, and the high point is also getting lower and lower, and the amplitude of the high point is also increasing.
C. Although the weekly K of 3 shows a large volume, there is demand to enter the 49,000 area, but the weekly volume is not very high. It can be clearly seen that the weekly volume and price in October 23 (5 area) are maintained, and each closing price is a new high. Now the rebound volume in August 24 (4, 6 area) is also shrinking, slightly less than the rebound in 1, 2 areas, and the closing price last week substantially hit a new low. Obviously, there is no demand. If it is really a violent bull market, what is the main force waiting for? Why not buy 58,000 BTC?

This is all the key information on the weekly chart. We cannot see any new highs at the moment. If it does reach a new high, it would basically be the last wave of distribution, and the market will be difficult next year.

Daily Line:

The daily line content is all in the chart, continuing the monthly and weekly lines. Currently, we can only see short-term bullish and long-term bearish trends.

Only so much content can be seen at present. The core of trading now is to wait patiently. It is really difficult to do business under such market conditions. It is like panning for gold in shit. If you make a little profit, you will be disgusted to the extreme. It is recommended to track more and trade with a small position by yourself to learn and review. It is unreasonable to go all in with a large position and high multiples. Wait for the best market conditions, such as the wave in October 2024. The money earned from one wave is enough for two or three years. You have to rely on the market for a living, not on yourself. It is really difficult for us retail investors to rely on ourselves.
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