Hello brothers!
The pain of August is over, hopefully September will bring a turnaround.
The violent fluctuations in August have finally come to an end. For investors in the cryptocurrency circle, this month has been really tough.
After the correction in early August, the market trend continued to fluctuate, making people feel extremely exhausted. If the market in the first five months mainly tested investors' patience, then August tested everyone's confidence in the cryptocurrency circle.
Time flies. It has been six months since Bitcoin last broke through its previous high. In the past six months, the market turmoil seems to have exhausted the funds of many investors. Therefore, in the current environment, many people are pessimistic about the market outlook and generally believe that there will be another round of big declines. Only after the plunge will the bull market begin. As for where the price will fall and where to buy the bottom, everyone has different opinions.
At present, everyone is generally looking forward to the arrival of interest rate cuts and a bull market, but without a sharp drop, a bull market may be difficult to achieve. Why does the market need a wash?
Imagine if the market sentiment is generally bullish and most people are long, can the market continue to rise? Everyone is making a lot of money, but where does this profit come from? Is it falling from the sky?
The most basic logic is that there must be enough shorts in the market to drive the rise, because the gains of the longs come from the losses of the shorts.
According to the data of the past 11 years, the probability of Bitcoin falling in September is as high as 72%. Will it happen again this time? A summary of potential positive/negative factors.
Bitcoin has been falling since it briefly touched $65,000 on August 26. It plunged again this morning (2) to a low of $57,116, the lowest in two weeks.
Is Bitcoin really cursed to fall in September?
Now as September approaches, investors are worried about whether the curse will strike again. In the figure below, we can observe the monthly return rate of Bitcoin. It can be found that in the past 11 years (2013 to 2023), Bitcoin has generally performed poorly in September, with 8 declines and a probability of decline of up to 73%.
In addition, looking at the average monthly return rate, September was also the month with the largest decline, with a drop of 4.78%.
On the other hand, based on the performance of the Nasdaq index in the past decade (2014 to 2023), there have been eight declines in September, with a probability of decline of up to 80%. Since there is a certain degree of correlation between cryptocurrencies and US stocks, they may also be affected.
Summary of favorable and unfavorable factors in September
Although historical data shows that the market does have a "September curse", it is not the only basis for decision-making. Here is a quick summary of the positive and negative factors in the market in September:
Negative factors:
1. According to Arkham Intelligence data, although Mt. Gox has repaid most of the bitcoins, its wallet still holds more than 40,000 BTC, and continued repayment may still pose a risk to the price.
2. The U.S. government transferred nearly $600 million in Bitcoin related to Silk Road in mid-August. It is not yet clear whether it is for custody or in preparation for sale.
3. Analysts pointed out that the actual entry price for BTC short-term holders is currently around $63,250. Since mid-June, BTC has been difficult to break through this level. Analysts warned that the market may face continued selling pressure before BTC can convert this area back into support.
Positive factors:
1. Currently, the Fed has high expectations for a rate cut in September. If there are no unexpected developments in the August non-farm payrolls data this week, the Fed’s confidence in a rate cut will be further strengthened.
2. Looking back at the performance of the S&P 500 index before the past nine U.S. presidential elections, the probability of U.S. stocks rising in the three months before the election is 78%, which may also boost Bitcoin's trend.
3. CryptoQuant data indicates that the selling pressure from Bitcoin miners is weakening, and if absorbed, it may form an upward momentum.
BTC has reached the last low point of the wedge at a small level, but there has been no stop-loss signal yet. If it stops falling and rebounds here, the bulls still have a chance. Once it falls below, it will start to fall again at a large level. At present, I have also opened a small long order at the current price to test the wedge pattern. If I make a wrong judgment, I will stop loss decisively!
Many people want to wait for 312 and 519, but it is actually quite difficult, especially now that the market is much more mature than a few years ago.
I understand everyone’s desire to achieve their goal in one go, but the fact is that the largest single-day drop in FTX’s stock price in recent years has been less than 20%. History is worth learning from, but we must respect objective facts.
In fact, I think compliance is also one of the reasons for the current BE trend. There are gains and losses. As for the copycats, I can only say that the value return must be broken before it can be established. Those who still hold on to the classical thinking of speculating in cryptocurrencies and do not know how to adapt should die soon this year.
Every time the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, Bitcoin will see a big rise in the three months before and after the cut. If the interest rate cut is confirmed on September 18, I believe that there will be a very good rebound in the crypto field in the fourth quarter of this year.
Today I looked at the contract market again. Some long positions were liquidated, and there were more short positions.
In this way the balance is disturbed;
The strategy of the dog dealer: both long and short explosions, first clean up the long troops, and then start to explode the short troops after a slight drop.
From the chart again, we can see that the BTC inflows (Germany, MtGox, US Department of Justice) are slowly being absorbed. Paper BTC bets are decreasing, which is a good sign.
Overall, the situation has turned from bearish to neutral in terms of supply.
I haven’t paid attention to copycats for a long time. Front is ridiculous. It’s just a new coin issuance.
I didn’t expect the coin that made money last year to have such a bottom line!
Generally, when a project owner changes its currency or name, it at least means that it wants to do something.
The story of FRONT changing its name and exchanging coins has been circulating since the beginning of the year, and the logic behind many people buying it at the time was simple: change the name and exchange the coin.
The price at that time was fluctuating around 0.35u, and the hype expectation went from 0.3- to around 3u, and then the guillotine was cut off. The story at that time was that you invested at the beginning of the year and reaped the rewards at the end of the year. It felt like the time was too long, especially because you didn’t think the “bull market” could last that long, so you didn’t invest, and you didn’t look closely at the “token model” at the time. Now it seems a bit interesting.
What we are mainly talking about here are several major "innovations" after FRONT was converted into SLF.
1. The tokens given to users are exchanged at a 1:1 ratio to create a “constant total amount”;
2. The total amount of tokens has quadrupled, and the note is “mining”, which makes people feel that it is not an immediate “double”;
3. FDV instantly quadruples, and the void doubles, and you don’t need to spend any money;
4. FRONT has 70M in circulation, SLF has 97M in direct circulation, and the extra 27M is currently worth 15M. I don’t know who got it.
To sum it up in one sentence: the money was made secretly and the leeks didn’t even notice.
At present, those who participated in the token exchange discount at the beginning of the year will unlock it in December. There are still 3 months left. Can it fall back to 0.1???
I just want to say, brother, according to the changes in the white paper + token rules, you should pay the exchange a new listing fee, after all, it is really a new project!!!
Unified answer: What if something goes wrong with USDT? Three ways to prevent it!
First of all, I think it is impossible for USDT itself to collapse because its mechanism does not have the risk of a run.
However, external anti-terrorism and anti-money laundering supervision, AI investment deficits, and internal management are not to say that there is absolutely no problem. Therefore, there are three ways to deal with extremely dangerous risks:
1. Diversification: Exchange some to USDC, FDUSD
2. Fiat currency: exchange some to US dollars or other fiat currencies
3. Bitcoin: Buy on dips and hit bottom.
Is September the last chance to buy Bitcoin (BTC)?
Everything will eventually come back to sweetness
Always believe that the bad times of the moment are only the brief darkness before dawn. All the hardships you experience will be the foreshadowing of future surprises. Flowers will bloom along the road, and so will the road ahead. Mountains have peaks, lakes have shores, and everything will turn around in the long journey of life. When you feel the aftertaste is bitter, please believe that everything will eventually turn sweet.
The market continued to fall over the weekend, and retail investors continued to be bearish on FUD, but whales kept buying and buying and were not idle. This is the current situation of the market.
After the high-level shock, Bitcoin continued to fall over the weekend, and then the pessimistic mood continued to spread. The panic and greed index dropped to 26, a significant drop from 55 last week. Such sentiment appeared because everyone was worried about liquidity issues.
After ICO and VC, everyone began to embrace the pvp model meme. Then when the meme performed poorly recently, everyone became even more pessimistic. On a macro level, they were worried about the US economic recession, and on a micro level, they were worried that the industry would not innovate and would not be able to bring sustainable growth.
Although panic is spreading, if you look at the whales on the chain, you will know that they are not selling, but continuing to buy. Every time there is general fear in the market, it is often accompanied by opportunities.
Be patient
The current wash-out is only a temporary fluctuation. Spot holders should be patient and not worry about short-term price fluctuations.
Even though BTC’s recent performance is worrying, big moves tend to come quietly during such times of sentiment.
The next focus of Bitcoin on the daily level is the 120-day moving average. If it can stand above 64,000 again, it is obvious that a large wave of market minutes is coming. Before it fails to stand above it, it can be understood as a shock adjustment.
The key factor is whether the spot market decides to buy back in or to launch another targeted short-selling rally. Before that, the bearish sentiment that permeates the entire market is not a problem.
Don’t follow the crowd when most people are looking in the same direction, but don’t go in the opposite direction just because everyone is looking in the same direction;
The stage when trends and volatile market patterns change into each other is often the time when you lose the most money. If you don’t understand it, it’s better not to do it. If you don’t do it, you won’t lose money, and if you don’t lose money, you will make money.
I still say that I am very optimistic about the market in Q4. Even now, I don’t see any point of continued pessimism, so hold on and stay optimistic.
This is the end of this article for now; if you want to know more about exciting events in the circle, you can join the community for consultation!
