September is here. Golden September and Silver October? Bad September? Don't rush to FUD
This week, we witnessed the Dow Jones Index, one of the three major indexes, climb to a record high. However, next Monday is a rest day and will not reopen until Tuesday. As time enters September, which is regarded as a challenge by many US stock investors, it is well known that this month is not very friendly to risky assets in history. Many investors in the market have begun to feel uneasy and spread panic (FUD) everywhere.
But in fact, there is no need to worry too much about this, because past data should not be a shackle for us to predict the future. I am still recovering from the turmoil in July and August. Two months ago, I thought that July was a period of strong performance of US stocks based on historical data, which affected my emotions and decision-making. But the result was unexpected. This July became the worst July in the past decade.
Through deep reflection, I realized that historical data is only a manifestation rather than the essence. Whether it is individual stocks, the market or Bitcoin, asset prices are the result of the combined effect of many factors, and we cannot simply rely on a single factor to predict future trends. I often make such mistakes.
Although September is often seen as an unfavorable month for risk assets, considering that the sharp market fluctuations in August this year may have digested most of the uncertainties, I think the market volatility in September may be reduced compared with July and August. Driven by stable sentiment, the three major US stock indexes are likely to set new highs before the official rate hike, possibly in the next few weeks.
As for Bitcoin, I am still optimistic. There are many indicators in the market that support the general direction of Bitcoin, such as ETF holdings, Bitcoin stocks on exchanges, the number of large Bitcoin wallet addresses, and miners' costs. In addition, almost all the Bitcoin spot held by the German government, Mt.Gox, and the US government has flowed to the market.
As long as the market's risk appetite rises and the money supply (M2) increases, Bitcoin is likely to continue to rise.
