“Looking forward to the endless frontier technology; seeing the future, leading the new era of investment research.”
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute:
Member ID:
Golden Egg Diary @jindanriji; Elk will not get lost @crypto_elk_; Forex Brother; Xibei @Asterismone;
Weekly Review
This week, from October 2 to October 9, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $28,580 and the lowest price was close to $27,160, with a fluctuation range of about 4.97%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 27,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
26,000–31,000, about 4.28 million pieces;
20000~25000: about 1.63 million pieces;
The probability of not falling below 24,000 to 26,000 in the short term is 79%;
The probability that the price will not rise below 32,000-34,000 in the short term is 65%.
Important news
Economic News
Fed's Mester: It may be necessary to raise interest rates again in 2023 and keep them there for a while.
The U.S. non-farm data for September was nearly twice as high as expected, and the market expects the interest rate cut to be postponed from July next year to September.
3. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 in September, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8%.
Encrypted ecological news
Real-world asset protocol Backed Finance issued a tokenized U.S. short-term Treasury bond ETF on the Base chain, called blB01, which offers a 5.2% yield.
US judge rejects SEC's appeal of $XRP ruling in Ripple case.
Multiple Ethereum futures ETFs were listed, with total trading volume on the first day of trading less than $2 million.
Investment bank Jefferies: BTC is a key hedge against inflation and is at the same level as gold.
U.S. House Speaker McCarthy was removed from office and crypto-friendly Congressman Patrick Mchenry took over temporarily.
Ripple has been granted a major payment institution license by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
The number of active developers in the crypto space has hit its lowest level since 2020.
In September, DEX transaction volume continued to hit a new low since January 2021.
OpenAI founder Sam Altman acknowledged Bitcoin's potential to become a universal currency when he appeared on Joe Rogan's podcast.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
Market Derivatives Status
Derivatives often play an extremely important role in the market. Usually, in the absence of external forces in the market, there is a cycle within the derivative category.
(The following figure shows the market derivatives status)
The figure shows a visualization after advanced data analysis and feature processing.
Going further on top of the full market derivatives structure.
Generally speaking, in the medium and long term, the market will have eight states.
From zero to seven states.
The third to fourth state is a dividing point. Generally, when the market is relatively good and derivatives do not have too many risks, or when a short squeeze is in progress, it is usually in the third state.
Generally speaking, if it drops below the second state, it is considered relatively safe.
Generally speaking, if it rises above the fifth state, it will be judged as relative risk.
Risks are shown in red, while lower risks are shown in blue.
Because the market derivative status itself has a cyclical effect, it is generally a relatively good indicator for judging the market stage in the medium and long term.
There are many indications of tops and bottoms in the medium and long term.
At present, the market's derivatives status is in the middle, and the market's derivatives are relatively neutral.
Mid-term exploration
Positive sentiment on the Internet
Trends in the views of emerging forces
High-weight selling pressure
Profit Percentage Compounding Model for Short-Term Participants
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
The liquidity of the market is slowly recovering, and this trend may still be maintained. Before it weakens, it may be slightly more difficult to short.
Judging from past situations, when the medium-term trend is expressed, there will be an advance performance. It is possible that the market has collectively chosen a positive attitude at a certain point, so the data will show a positive performance.
(The figure below shows the trend of opinions of the new forces)
The short-term liquidity of the market cannot be separated from the support of new forces. This model examines the opinion trends of new forces through the market value circulation status and spending status.
Usually, when the long and short term diverge from each other, an increase in the proportion of long-term participants and a decrease in the proportion of short-term participants are judged as long-term and short-term turnover, but it is also possible that the market's enthusiasm for participation of new forces has sharply decreased.
At present, the willingness of the new forces to participate is gradually recovering, that is, the circulation conditions of this group are slowly recovering. It may not show much in a short period of time and it will take some time.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
High-weight selling pressure has been exerted on the market, which may take some time to digest.
It is possible that based on the current performance, adjustments will be made within a certain range, and this tone may be maintained before the market changes.
(The following figure shows the profit percentage compounding model for short-term participants)
Blue line: Accumulation group supply
Yellow line: Short-term participant supply
The accumulation group showed a strong willingness to increase holdings, and the recent rush to buy stocks was large.
Maybe the current performance means there is a certain amount of buyers in the market.
At the same time, short-term participants currently have a certain degree of emotional easing, reducing their willingness to sell off.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: Risk factor is in the danger zone, risk is increasing
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
The risk factor has been hovering in the danger zone in the past week, and no large-scale short squeeze has yet occurred. The expectation remains the same as last week.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Options trading volume has increased slightly, and the proportion of put options has not changed much compared with last week and is currently at a median level.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
However, the current derivatives trading volume has not fluctuated much and remains at a low level, indicating that most derivatives traders are currently in a wait-and-see state, but it also indicates that fluctuations are not far away.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
The implied volatility of options has not changed much compared with last week, and the activity of option traders is generally average.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
The rise in prices has led to an increase in positive sentiment, while panic sentiment remains low. The current price has reached the cost range for short-term holders. This week, we will continue to focus on market panic represented by loss transfer volume.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
The number of newly added addresses and active addresses decreased slightly this week. The on-chain activity level is low.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: The overall outflow is accumulated and the selling pressure is low.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
The big pie is currently in a state of medium outflow.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
E is currently in a state of small inflow.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has slightly rebounded, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has slightly rebounded.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
Purchasing power in Asia and Europe is still recovering, while purchasing power in the Americas, which has a larger weight, has declined to a negative value.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDT exchanges)
USDT is currently experiencing a small inflow.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 26,000; there is a willingness to sell at 29,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 23000, 24000, 25000, and 26000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 29000, 30000 and 31000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 25,000, 26,000, and 27,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 29000, 30000 and 31000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 23000, 24000, and 26000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 30,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
With U.S. nonfarm payrolls data coming in ahead of expectations, market traders appear to be betting on the last rate hike this year to come in November.
The world's attention is also increasing because this may be the last rate hike this year or there may be no rate hike at all, all depending on the Fed's own choices and advance remarks.
From a cyclical perspective, the market's ability to withstand continuous negative impacts has increased, and more people have begun to slowly shift from looking for evidence of negative impact to looking for evidence of positive impact. Among them, many people are paying attention to the halving in the near future.
The capital market is a game of expectations. When the most difficult time is over, it is conceivable that the long period of decline will become shorter in the future, and even a special structural market situation may be ushered in.
On-chain long-term insights:
The updated market derivatives situation provides a deeper exploration into market cycles and is more indicative of periodic peaks and troughs.
At present, from a medium- to long-term perspective, the market derivatives situation is neutral.
Market setting:
The derivative structure of the market is relatively stable and has not changed much. The next issue will focus on the data research from the black swan.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
The liquidity of the market is good, and short selling is difficult at present;
The new forces are in a state of repair;
The market currently has selling pressure that needs to be digested;
The accumulation group is increasing, and the short-term players are less willing to sell
Market setting:
repair
The current liquidity of the market is relatively good, and it may not show signs of weakness, which would increase the difficulty of short selling.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is in the danger zone and the risk is increasing.
The number of newly added active addresses is at a relatively low level, and the market activity is low.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of the exchange showed an accumulated outflow state, with low selling pressure.
Global purchasing power has rebounded slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has rebounded slightly.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the 26,000 price level, and a willingness to sell at the 29,000 price level.
The probability that the price will not fall below 24,000-26,000 in the short term is 79%; the probability that the price will not rise below 32,000-34,000 in the short term is 65%.
Market setting:
Market sentiment is neutral, with slightly less positive sentiment than last week. In the short term, judging from the data alone, there is a high probability of a certain short squeeze, but this week we will pay more attention to the impact of news.
Strategy suggestion: Spot dynamic hedging
risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
Welcome to follow us!
