This round of crypto market is more susceptible to the influence of traditional market.
Most cryptocurrency investors tend to judge the market decline by inertia and irrationality.
Market crashes have happened many times in the past
(such as the Internet bubble, the real estate market crash in 2008, and the epidemic in 2020).
Only four key and detailed indicators are needed to help crypto investors make predictive judgments on market recession or collapse:
1/Manufacturing cycle
Manufacturing is the engine of the economy most of the time, and the health of the global economy is largely related to the performance of manufacturing
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
2./Taiwan exports
When Taiwan's exports begin to decline, it basically indicates a global economic slowdown.
This is because Taiwan is an important node in the global supply chain, especially in the technology and semiconductor industries. Taiwan's export data can reflect the strength of global demand.
In addition, since most of Taiwan's exports are intermediate products, Taiwan's reduced exports can also indicate a sluggish manufacturing industry.
View indicators of Taiwan's export data through the following channels
↓↓↓↓
Taiwan Ministry of Finance: mof.gov.tw
3/Percentage of industries with strong EPS growth in the US industry
This indicator means corporate profitability, reflecting the amount of net profit allocated to each common share of a company in a specific period.
When market breadth is narrow - that is, only a few industries report strong EPS growth - it means that the market is concentrated on a few leading industries, while other industries may be experiencing declines or stagnation, so there is potential risk in the market at present.
This indicator can be viewed on subscription platforms such as S&P Global and Bloomberg, or FactSet.
4/Net percentage of central bank rate cuts
In short, the central bank's interest rate policy is the main tool to respond to economic weakness. Although interest rate cuts are generally seen as stimulus measures for the economy, when a large number of central banks start to cut interest rates at the same time, it means that there is a major problem in the global economy.
Most websites can track global central bank interest rates, but for example, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), FRED, etc. may have more detailed indicators and analysis.