This week, the Bitcoin market will usher in five key events, each of which may have a profound impact on the direction of the cryptocurrency.
First of all, Bitcoin has achieved an increase of more than 26% since the current low of 49,000. It is currently above the bull market support line and the 200-day moving average, so the next trend is also worthy of our attention.
First, we need to focus on the performance of Bitcoin's monthly line. Although the monthly line is currently in a negative state, if the closing price in August can break through the $65,000 mark, it will mark the monthly line turning from negative to positive, highlighting the strong momentum of the market. Even if it fails to close positive, considering that there is not much time left in this month, the possibility of falling below the previous low of $49,000 is quite low. Therefore, the general analysis still tends to believe that Bitcoin remains on the upward track of the bull market.
Secondly, the long-term trend of Bitcoin remains stable. Although the monthly line has experienced downward spikes in the past few months, the fundamentals and overall structure of the monthly line remain solid. At the same time, some crypto traders pointed out that it took much longer for Bitcoin to break through the previous high in this cycle than in previous cycles, which may be due to the "unexpected" effect of Bitcoin's new high before the halving.
Although the price of Bitcoin in the past six months is still far from the high point in the first half of the year, it is expected that once the monthly line of Bitcoin breaks through the high point of the previous bull market, which is $69,000, the new round of growth momentum will be unstoppable!
Third, the July personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data to be released this week is also particularly important to the market. The Federal Reserve prefers to focus on PCE rather than CPI (macroeconomic indicators) because PCE can more accurately measure the inflation status of the real economy.
In addition, Nvidia's (NVDIA) financial report will also be released this week. Given Nvidia's recent financial reports, it can also directly reflect the current healthy state of the market. If its financial report results exceed market expectations, it will not only boost investor confidence, but also ease the Federal Reserve's concerns when considering interest rate cuts, providing more flexibility for monetary policy decisions.
On the issue of interest rate cuts, the market currently expects a 71% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 28.5% probability of a 50 basis point cut. However, there are also views that a gradual interest rate cut, that is, a 25 basis point cut in batches, may be a more prudent strategy than a one-time 50 basis point cut.
Fourth, the difficulty of Bitcoin mining has entered an upward trend. Although the difficulty of mining has decreased during the correction in recent weeks, this has reversed in the past one or two weeks. Judging from the current trend, it is expected that the difficulty of Bitcoin will continue to rise, which is also good news for Bitcoin's fundamentals and long-term development.
Fifth, short-term holders of Bitcoin are constantly reducing their holdings. In August, they reduced their holdings by $10 billion, but judging from the market trend, these positions seem to have been absorbed by long-term holders.
At the same time, this continued outflow of funds from short-term holders (i.e. wallet addresses that have held Bitcoin for no more than 155 days) could be a positive sign that the market correction is nearing its end, indicating that the market may have reached a short-term bottom and is ready to rebound.
Finally, historical data shows that Bitcoin tends to rebound quickly after experiencing extreme panic. In recent weeks, the Bitcoin panic index has reached 26, entering a panic state, which may also indicate that the market is about to usher in a wave of rapid rebound.
In summary, the next one to two weeks will be crucial for the trend of the Bitcoin market. We should pay close attention to this week's PCE data, Nvidia's financial report, whether Bitcoin's weekly line can close above the bull market support line, and the market's reaction to these events. Let's wait and see how Bitcoin's trend will develop in the next few weeks!
👀 What do you think of the above five key events? Do you think Bitcoin’s critical moment is coming? Feel free to share your analysis and predictions in the comments section!
