Last Friday, Powell confirmed that there would be a rate cut in September, and the macroeconomic environment has become more clear. The spot Bitcoin ETF market quickly saw inflows, which were about four times the usual daily inflows.
In addition, we have also been paying attention to the group of Bitcoin miners recently. Judging from the hashband indicator, the capitulation phase that lasted for more than two months has come to an end, which means that the natural selling pressure from miners may weaken, which is our previous intuitive conclusion. And after this wave of Bitcoin rise, the reaction of miners is very different from the past few months.
Bitcoin has repeatedly fluctuated between $50,000 and $70,000, and every time the price of the currency rebounds from the low point, Bitcoin miners usually increase their selling of Bitcoin; but when the price is close to the local low point, they will reduce their selling of Bitcoin. This wave of Bitcoin has risen to $64,000, but Bitcoin miners do not seem to be in a hurry to sell, which may indicate that miners have changed their views on the future market.
They no longer expect Bitcoin prices to fall quickly next as before, but believe that prices are expected to continue to break upward. Therefore, they choose to hold more Bitcoin in this rise, rather than sell it in large quantities as before. Perhaps they are waiting for Bitcoin to continue to rise in order to make more profits.
At this stage, miners are no longer in a hurry to sell Bitcoin, which may indicate that their operating conditions have improved, cash flow pressure has eased, or they are more optimistic about future price trends. However, we still need to continue to pay attention to the movements of miners, especially if Bitcoin continues to rise in the future, whether they will continue to sell as in the past.
It is also worth noting that long-term Bitcoin holders have begun to actively increase their holdings of Bitcoin again. When the next stage of large-scale demand comes, new retail investors will enter the market to take over at high prices, which is the most exciting moment of the Bitcoin bull market. Of course, this is also accompanied by the recovery of global liquidity, the US dollar has begun to gradually weaken, the circulation of crypto stablecoins is increasing, and more liquidity is pouring into the market.
