We've all been there—crafting a detailed chart analysis or a well-thought-out prediction, only to have the market take an unexpected turn.

If you do this in public (like I do), inevitably, the comments roll in:

"Haha, enjoying your loss?"

"Hope that trade worked out for you... lol."

"I knew you were wrong!"

So, let me set the record straight: Trading isn't about being right all the time. Expecting to be right on every trade is a fast track to frustration and failure.

Successful trading is about having a solid strategy that minimizes risk and maximizes profits while fully accepting that losses are part of the game.

Let me break it down for you.

Analysis Does Not Equal Immediate Action

When I share chart analyses and market predictions, it's not an open invitation to jump into a trade blindly. These analyses are roadmaps, not commands.

Here's how it works:

  • Identifying Key Levels: My analyses often highlight crucial support and resistance levels. These are price points where the market has historically reacted and may do so again.

  • Waiting for Confirmation: Simply reaching a key level isn't enough. I wait for additional signals—like volume spikes, confirmation on higher timeframes, or specific candles—to confirm a potential move.

  • No Confirmation, No Trade: I stay out if the market doesn't provide the confirmation I'm looking for. There's no harm in watching and waiting. Patience preserves capital.

Bottom Line

An analysis is the foundation, but the execution depends on real-time market behavior. No confirmation means no commitment.

Winning Isn't About Being Right Every Time

Let's dive deeper into why you don't need to be right on every trade to be a profitable trader. I'll illustrate this with a concrete example.

Since I mainly trade higher timeframes like the daily chart, I aim for an impactful risk/reward ratio — typically at least >5 (actually, it is higher most of the time).

In other words, I aim to make five dollars for every dollar I risk. This ratio allows for substantial profits even if most trades are losses.

Here's a super pessimistic example.

Let's assume our initial capital is $100, and we go for a profit target of 10% and a stop loss of 2%.

Let's check the numbers of the super pessimistic scenario:

Trade 1: Loss

  • Capital After Trade: $100 - $2 (2% loss) = $98

Trade 2: Loss

  • Capital After Trade: $98 - $1.96 (2% loss) = $96.04

Trade 3: Loss

  • Capital After Trade: $96.04 - $1.92 (2% loss) = $94.12

Trade 4: Loss

  • Capital After Trade: $94.12 - $1.88 (2% loss) = $92.24

Trade 5: Win

  • Profit: $92.24 + $9.23 (10% profit) = $101.47

Net Result After 5 Trades:

  • Final Capital: $101.47

  • Net Profit: $1.47

Even though I lost 4 out of 5 trades, my final capital is higher than where I started. This is the power of a favorable risk/reward ratio.

You don't need to be right most of the time—you need to ensure that when you are right, it counts.

To be very clear, the above is a simplistic example! Moreover, I don't aim for a success rate of 20%. Typically, my trades' success rate on the daily timeframe is much higher.

Bottom Line

Profitability isn't about the number of winning trades; it's about having a strategy that allows winners to outweigh losers in terms of impact on overall capital.

Thick Skin and Focused Mindset

Given this approach, it's easy to see why snarky comments about "wrong" predictions don't ruffle my feathers.

Consider This:

  • Understanding the Process: Those who mock probably don't understand the strategic depth of professional trading.

  • Emotion vs. Strategy: Letting emotions dictate your trading decisions is a recipe for disaster. Staying disciplined and detached is crucial.

  • Continuous Improvement: Every trade—win or lose—is a learning opportunity. Feedback from the market is far more valuable than unsolicited comments.

Bottom Line

My goal isn't to always be right; it's to execute a proven strategy consistently and sustainably.