Will there be a rate cut in September?

Hello, brothers, today is August 20th. The recent market seems to be clear. Everyone thinks that there will be a rate cut next month. I found that many media bloggers and even some well-known big Vs believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, but Arthur once again maintains his original view that the real rate cut will not happen in September, but in November or even December!

Old fans who follow Arthur know that I proposed in June and July that the next wave of the rise of the big cake will be after November, and its main driving force comes from the interest rate cuts of the old Americans and the rise of the US stock market.

Arthur believes that there will be no real rate cut before the election is settled on October 20, unless a black swan event occurs, the US stock market will jump sharply, and a rescue policy will be introduced. But even if this series occurs, it is the continued decline of the big cake, and the market repair and recovery after the decline, rather than the rise, that is, the upper 70,000. Since the occurrence of black swan events cannot be ruled out (black swan refers to the unpredictability of things), some people say that the outbreak of the NO.3 war will bring a big drop. In fact, on the contrary, the war will pull up the market. In addition, Arthur believes that Trump is likely to win the election in the United States. Some partners here will say that Harris's votes in the past two months are far greater than Trump. Trump's current situation is very sluggish, and the votes in swing states are not optimistic about Trump, but Arthur still believes that it will be Trump. There are too many reasons and the composition is also complicated. Simply put, before the final result comes out, everything is the control and management of the expected market. The trend of the results of the Sino-US financial war will not change. Before the final result of the event, the expectations must be repeated! Wall Street comparison has been tried and tested. When everyone sees that the votes are actually greater than Trump, the result will be Trump, because the direction of the entire major event needs him.

In addition, S3 is likely to erupt. It is an increasingly frequent event, not a black swan. New large-scale epidemics and Japanese volcanic eruptions are black swans that can affect the global economy. Relatively speaking, the impact of the scope, scale, and time period of the outbreak will be more important.

In summary, after November, there is a high probability that the interest rate cut will lead to a rise in Bitcoin, US stocks, gold, and A-shares, and even a rebound in Hong Kong stocks. Bitcoin will usher in a long positive line for many consecutive weeks. In the days to come, Bitcoin and cottage stocks will still be bought at low levels.

Follow Arthur and bring value.