Regarding the revision of non-agricultural data on Wednesday, its purpose may be to pave the way for the stability of the employment market! (See the picture)
If it is really as the current statement, the reduction is 600,000-1 million, and a large number of illegal immigrant workers are eliminated, then it is basically certain that this is paving the way for the subsequent non-agricultural data.
And what is the purpose of paving the way?
By revising the previous data, the employment data, which was originally a significant decline from last year to now, has become stable data, greatly reducing the possibility of economic recession caused by employment problems. In this way, the interest rate cut in September will naturally become a defensive interest rate cut. At the same time, such a rate cut can greatly reduce the impact of the interest rate cut on the entire financial market. At the same time, it will enhance economic confidence and ensure the stability of the US dollar index.
The reasons for this view are as follows:
The large-scale revision of the previous value will make the data comparison after April this year significantly different. If we calculate according to the current data of 1 million downward adjustment value, after spreading it to 12 months, it will basically be reduced by 83,333,000 people every month, and then we can see it from the picture.
Figure 1 is a bar chart of all non-farm data collected from April 2023 to date. According to the original data, the recent job market has cooled down significantly, which will continue to cause concerns about the labor market.
Figure 2 is a comparison chart made by reducing the previous value of 833.33 million people per month in the previous 12 months and distinguishing them with blue bars. It is obvious that if the first 12 months are corrected, the US non-farm data is relatively flat overall, and the recent data in April/May/June/July this year, after being reduced, still keeps the data stable as a whole, and there is even the possibility of non-farm data growth, which reduces concerns about the job market.
Of course, there is a bolder and lowest probability guess at present:
After the data is corrected, the overall non-farm data is stable. On the premise of solving the concerns about the labor market, inflation is reduced in an orderly manner. This is also a reason to continue to maintain high interest rates. In other words, there is no interest rate cut in September.
Of course, this possibility currently exists in my personal "conspiracy theory" and is not the main point of view!
