"This is the most stupid bull run ever"
"The trend is down now"
"There will never be a good run anymore, just accept it"
These are things I keep seeing on my timeline all over the place.
Listen up, bec you have no clue:
1️⃣ Crypto has gone up and always bounced back for 15 years long.
Betting that this is the exact year it all changes and goes down only from here would be the worst trade from a statistical point of view.
The risk to reward doesn't favor the downside on this 15 years of accuracy.
2️⃣ This isn't really a bull run yet
The saying that this is the worst bull-run ever for many isn't entirely wrong. But it also is.
It's because we aren't really in a bull-run just yet.
I know what you are going to say:
"Hah, have fun round-tripping or betting on a supercycle"
I'm not betting on any of that. I'm just looking at the facts.
First of all this is 2024, although Bitcoin has rallied quite a bit early due to the effects of the ETF, historically there has never been a good run yet this year.
It's the year after (2025). Alts confirm this quite well as let's be honest. It's nothing like a real bull run yet.
3️⃣ Ignore the timing and Bitcoin
Despite the fact that Bitcoin already ran and regardless of the 4-year cycle, look at macro!
I'm not betting on a prolonged or multi-year long bull run that lasts forever at all!
I'm saying that we actually didn't really have a bull-run yet.
If it was a real bull-run and we had the ETF? Bitcoin would have been past $100k already!
It's why there is so much confusion if this is a bull or not?
In a way it is, in a way it isn't.
But basically, every bull-market loves liquidity injections.
- New retail joining after fomo of media and higher numbers (BTC above $70k and Ethereum above $4k)
- Low interest rates
- Money printer on
- etc.
I always say to be adaptable. Next bull-run might last longer or even shorter than others.
Don't take history as an absolute thing.
But what I am saying is that a bull-run might even be yet to start from the exact very beginning as technically it hasn't really begun yet in some way.
Will it be equally powerful? Will there be diminishing returns?
That has yet to be seen but we probably didn't even have a run yet while others are speculating they we are already mid-way.
~
Don't be shaken out because some people say so.
Or just because this "bull-run" has been lackluster.
It's purely because they have been looking at Bitcoin only or they've just joined recently with limited amounts of experience.
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