Bitcoin fell again late at night!
Bitcoin caused trouble again after yesterday's CPI, but US stocks rose quite well.
The four-hour declines of Bitcoin in recent times are all similar, forming a range of oscillations, and then breaking down, triggering a gate-drawing market. The key short-term neckline support of Bitcoin is 57,600. If it holds, it will be an oscillating trend of 57,600-62,000. If it falls below, it will be a four-hour or even daily downward gate-drawing market.
The latest CPI data was also released yesterday, but despite the favorable conditions, the market did not rise but fell instead?
Last night before the release of the US CPI data, BTC briefly rose to around 61,800. After the data was released, it was lower than expected. Now the September interest rate cut is a foregone conclusion, it is just a question of whether it will be reduced by 25 or 50 points. Many people think that Bitcoin will continue to rebound to 66,000, 70,000 or even higher. In fact, it is just the opposite. It is currently in a bearish period.
Data interpretation:
The annual CPI rate has been effectively reduced and inflation has been effectively controlled, but the monthly rate has rebounded, which is basically in line with market expectations. It also represents that the current US economy remains healthy. Inflation has been reduced, but it has not been excessively accelerated. Inflation is resilient but can be controlled overall.
This set of data reduces the probability of a 50% rate cut in September to 41.5%, and increases it to 58.5% for a 25 basis point rate cut, which makes me a little suspicious that today's data is in preparation for a 25 basis point rate cut in September. Overall, the latest CPI data is basically stable and positive data. The US economy is operating normally, and there is no worry about recession, and inflation has not rebounded. This can successfully make the 25 basis point rate cut in September a defensive rate cut, while reducing the risk of market correction in the September rate cut.
Risk Market Impact: The data is good for expectations of interest rate cuts, good for U.S. stocks, and also good for the crypto market.
The data is good, so why did it fall again? There may be three reasons:
1. The surprising thing in the CPI report is that rents are rising faster, indicating that inflation is still a bit high. The Fed is likely to choose to slow down the first rate cut and then consider a larger rate cut. So the market is a little disappointed.
2. Iran’s banking system suffered a large-scale cyber attack
Initial assessments suggest this could be one of the largest cyber attacks against Iran’s national infrastructure.
Iran was not planning to cause trouble, but this has increased the possibility of conflict.
3. Some BTC transferred from Mentougou have been continuously shipped during this period, which will also bring selling pressure to the market
Last night, 33,105 BTC were transferred from the wallet address of Mentougou, with a value of approximately US$1.97 billion.
When will the altcoin bull market come? To answer this question, we must first understand the most basic logic.
BTC is to the cryptocurrency world what the U.S. dollar is to foreign exchange. In a monetary tightening and interest rate hike cycle, funds flow back to the U.S. dollar and cryptocurrency funds flow back to BTC. In a monetary easing and interest rate cut cycle, the opposite is true.
BTC's market share has been strong for two years. The interest rate cut cycle will begin in September, which also means that BTC.D will peak in the fourth quarter of this year.
It is still necessary to make good mid- to long-term layout for copycat stocks. Copycat stocks with active trading and relatively small market capitalization are good bargain hunting targets!
At this stage, I still recommend that you take a closer look at Grayscale's layout. Experienced investors all know that the last bull market was after Grayscale entered the market. The copycat market reached an unprecedented crazy height, and even Grayscale experienced a huge asset drawdown in the end.
But looking at the various similar crypto fund products established by Grayscale objectively, there will be a very significant market rising cycle after his layout, such as SUI, MKR, etc. in the past two days.
From the monthly chart, people, floki, and pepe have reached their peaks, and there is still a big wave of market trends behind Doge shib
SLERF, TROLL, Ladys, Silly are on the way to startup. Sell the memes at the top and ambush the memes at the bottom, so that you can reach the other side steadily.
Being forgotten is the beginning of an explosion, and the whole network's fomo is the end of the market.
Next, let’s take a look at 6 cryptocurrencies with 100% potential. Which one will be the next pepe?
BEAM: Avalanche-based Layer 2 designed for gaming. As top Web3 games finally enter the mainstream, we are likely to see a resurgence in gaming narratives. BEAM has a large amount of venture capital funding, and as the bull market progresses, the profits of these funds will eventually be used to buy back and destroy $BEAM.
AVAX: Gaining a lot of traction in the gaming space. Their subnet structure is ideally suited to house a dedicated gaming subnet, with a fully EVM-compatible chain and solid integration in the crypto space. As a blue chip layer 1, AVAX has an excellent risk/reward profile and the potential for explosion given the subnet's dynamic nature.
IMX: Similar to $BEAM, a dedicated gaming L2, but based on ETH. They are in the final stages of migrating to the Polygon zkEVM, which will unlock various native use cases that were previously a source of friction as a StarkWare based L2.
UNI: Uniswap (UNI) continues to be a strong player in the decentralized exchange (DEX) space. Its unique value proposition is to allow users to trade cryptocurrencies without intermediaries. As decentralized finance (DeFi) continues to develop, UNI's growth potential is becoming more and more obvious.
ONDO: is quickly becoming a well-known player in the decentralized finance space. Known for its innovative approach, it uses smart contracts to provide unique financial products for increased security and transparency. ONDO has the potential to disrupt the traditional financial system by introducing a more efficient and secure way to trade.
JUP: Jupiter (JUP) is a low-profile altcoin focused on enhancing data security and privacy through blockchain technology. In an era when data breaches are becoming increasingly common, JUP's technology offers a powerful solution. With the market showing similar positive signs to 2021, JUP appears poised for a significant rise.
