Many people believe the September rate cut is a certainty and expect the market to rebound to $66,000, $70,000, or even higher. However, the current reality might be quite different, as we are in a bearish period. This view, discussed two weeks ago, overlooks market liquidity. With the Fedâs meeting set for September 17, thereâs still over a month before then. Prices are unlikely to continue rising during this time. Instead, institutions are expected to start driving prices up only two weeks before the Fed meeting to align with speculative expectations.
Thus, August is likely to be a period of correction. After hitting a low, the market might begin to rise. This scenario is like promising candy on September 17, where you have to wait a month to get it. The anticipation builds as the date approaches, and the closer it gets, the more eager you become. However, the market wonât hype up this âcandyâ too early. The hype typically starts only 1-2 weeks before the key date to have the most impact. After getting the âcandy,â excitement fades, and the market might adjust downward.
Examining the K-line chart, we assess the trend through the monthly line. Since March, the monthly lines have alternated between bullish and bearish. July closed bullish, so August is expected to close bearish. Peaks and lows have been trending down, indicating a continued bearish trend.
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