Rusty Vanneman, Chief Investment Officer of Orion

Rusty Vanneman, chief investment officer at Orion, said today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was largely in line with market expectations. The overall CPI year-on-year growth rate was slightly better than expected, falling from the expected 3.0% to 2.9%. It is worth noting that the overall CPI was also 3.0% last month.

Considering this week's inflation data (including yesterday's Producer Price Index, PPI data), as well as the fact that both market-based and survey-based short-term inflation expectations have fallen to multi-year lows, it shows that current inflationary pressures are relatively mild. Based on these factors, Rusty Vanneman believes that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is still very high.

Analysis and interpretation

- CPI Data: The latest CPI data showed a slight decline in inflation, from 3.0% expected to 2.9%, which suggests that inflationary pressures have eased.

- PPI data: Producer Price Index (PPI) data also supported the view that inflationary pressures were easing.

- Short-Term - Short-Term Expectations: Market- and survey-based short-term inflation expectations fell to multi-year lows, suggesting that the market generally expects inflation to remain low.

-Federal Reserve – Expectations of a Fed rate cut: These data and expectations together support market expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

in conclusion

Orion Chief Investment Officer Rusty Vanneman's view shows that current inflation data and market expectations support the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September. As inflationary pressures ease, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to adopt a more relaxed monetary policy to support economic growth. #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 #美国7月PPI低于预期 #美联储何时降息？