Data released by the United States on Tuesday showed that the annual rate of producer price index (PPI) in July was 2.2%, lower than the expected value of 2.3% and lower than the previous value of 2.6%. The monthly rate of PPI in July was 0.1%, lower than the expected value of 0.20% and lower than the previous value of 0.20%. After the release of weak US PPI data, traders increased their bets on the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy. The Nasdaq rose 2% during the session, the S&P 500 rose 1.3%, and the Penny Stock Index rose 2.7%. On Wednesday, the United States released another inflation indicator, the CPI.
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Germany's largest development bank, KfW, has teamed up with Boerse Stuttgart Digital (BSD) as an infrastructure provider partner to prepare for an upcoming blockchain-based digital bond issuance. KfW plans to issue bonds under Germany's Electronic Securities Act (eWpG) in the coming weeks. BSD will be responsible for managing crypto wallets and protecting private keys during the issuance and redemption process. The upcoming bond issuance will be part of the European Central Bank's trial of using central bank money to settle blockchain-based transactions. Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal said that Coinbase has submitted another opinion brief to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the agency's proposed expansion of the definition of "trading platform", arguing that the SEC's proposal lacks critical analysis and should be withdrawn and revised. Liquidators of the bankrupt cryptocurrency hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC) are seeking at least $1.3 billion in compensation from Terraform Labs, the liquidator said in a court document. Japanese listed company Metaplanet spent 500 million yen to increase its holdings by 57.1 BTC and currently holds 303.095 BTC. On August 13, Musk said that the total views of the conversation with Trump and other subsequent discussions have now reached about 1 billion times. The "Musk X Trump" live broadcast discussed issues such as inflation, immigration, and AI, but did not mention cryptocurrency or BTC. Musk said that he also welcomes another candidate Harris to have a live dialogue in X Space. Bitfinex said that BTC rebounded strongly last week, rising nearly 28% from the recent low of $49,000, the lowest price since February, after falling 33.32% from the all-time high of $73,666, the largest correction in the current cycle. The US economy continues to show resilience, and although concerns about a potential slowdown continue, recent data supports a more optimistic outlook, and BTC has begun to recover after experiencing the largest correction in this cycle. "Top trader" Eugene Ng Ah Sio said that the current market trend is similar to March 2022 or August 2023. However, investors should choose their own bullish direction.
(According to BTC historical price data, BTC rebounded to the highest point below the top in March 2022, and then started a unilateral decline in April; in August 2023, BTC fell rapidly in the middle of the month, and then briefly went sideways before starting a unilateral rise) BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said that Yellen will inject at least $301 billion and up to $1.05 trillion from now to the end of the year. Since April this year, the crypto risk market has been going sideways. Due to the net reduction in outstanding Treasury bills, liquidity in the system has been withdrawn, and cash is still trapped on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet (RRP), unable to drive up the prices of financial assets. According to Yellen, the net issuance of U.S. Treasury bills will reach $301 billion from now to the end of the year. If this relationship holds, BTC will quickly give up the sell-off caused by the appreciation of the yen. The alt season will only return after BTC and ETH break through $70,000 and $4,000, respectively. Once Yellen and Powell join forces, the cryptocurrency bull market in 2025 will be brilliant. On August 13, the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of $28 million. The spot ETH ETF had a net inflow of $4.9 million, ending a three-day period of net outflows. Last week, digital asset investment products had a net inflow of $176 million, and the trading volume of ETPs was much higher than usual, at $19 billion last week, and the average weekly trading volume so far this year was $14 billion. BlackRock and Fidelity's spot BTC ETFs currently hold a total of $31.6 billion in BTC. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that after the dust settled on the BTC decline in the past two weeks, the total net inflow of BTC spot ETFs from the beginning of the year reached $19 billion, a record high. After considering all factors, it still performed unexpectedly strongly and was the most important indicator for measuring results. Data released by the United States on Tuesday showed that the annual rate of the producer price index PPI in July was 2.2%, lower than the expected value of 2.3% and lower than the previous value of 2.6%. The monthly rate of PPI in July was 0.1%, lower than the expected value of 0.20% and lower than the previous value of 0.20%. Traders increased bets on the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy after the release of weak U.S. PPI data. Inflation continued to slow and the labor market cooled, leading financial markets to expect the Fed to start an easing cycle in September after the unemployment rate surged to a nearly three-year high of 4.After reaching 3%, the Fed is now increasingly concerned about the slack in the labor market and therefore cannot rule out a 50 basis point rate cut.
The more closely watched CPI data will be released on Wednesday. Against the backdrop of fading inflationary pressures, weak employment data in July prompted economists to expect the Federal Reserve to start a series of rate cuts starting next month. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq rose 2%, the S&P 500 rose 1.3%, and the gold price rose 2.7%. Scott Rubner, managing director of Goldman Sachs Group, said that U.S. stock investors will have a short "bottom-fishing" window at the end of this month as the selling pressure from systematic funds has eased. He has seen enough evidence and reductions in positions to show that the worst market technicals are in the past. The rebound in September "will be super clean and neat. This will be his last bearish view on the stock market in August. It is ending the worst period of supply and demand mismatch in the stock market in August. He will turn tactically bullish on U.S. stocks on August 30. The buyback window for companies from August to September has always been strong, only lagging behind November and December. 90% of the stocks in the S&P 500 will be in the buyback window, which will close again on September 6. ANZ Bank strategists report that gold prices may rise in the year The bottom hit $2,550 per ounce. The Fed's rate cut cycle and the resulting decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar will become a long-term catalyst for gold. The latest data shows that the U.S. producer price index PPI fell to 2.2% in July, and inflation eased. It is expected that the CPI index released on Wednesday night will be the same as the previous value or decline, which will strengthen the possibility of the Fed's rate cut next month, thus starting a monetary policy easing cycle. In a common phenomenon, it is difficult for the Fed to return to a bear market after loosening its monetary policy, unless the next round of rate hikes (or unexpected events) is started. The market expects that this rate cut cycle will last until the end of 2025 or mid-2026. I hope that this time, the big cake will no longer have various negative factors (the previous MtGox/Germany/US/Grayscale/Jump Trading sell-offs have already caused the big cake to lag behind), and keep up with the gains of the U.S. stock market. #美国7月PPI低于预期 #美国CPI数据即将公布 #美联储何时降息？
