Big fluctuation warning tonight!
Last night (August 13), the United States released producer price index (PPI) data. The core producer price index (monthly) dropped from 0.4% to 0.0%, and the core producer price index (year-on-year) dropped from 3.0%. dropped to 2.4%, and the producer price index (monthly) dropped from 0.2% to 0.1%.
Affected by the data, the market has higher expectations for an interest rate cut in September. The Asia-Pacific stock market has heated up this morning. Bitcoin ($BTC) also rebounded quickly after falling below 58,000 US dollars yesterday. As of this writing, it is 60,829 US dollars. Volatility continues to be a factor this week. The main axis of the market.
Image Source: CoinGecko Bitcoin Price
And tonight, the real drama that will affect whether the Federal Reserve (FED) cuts interest rates in September is about to take place - the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July will be released at 20:30 Taiwan time tonight (August 14) .
U.S. CPI data for July will be released soon
Currently, investors are paying close attention to the release of U.S. CPI data for July tonight (August 14). According to data from Investing.com, the market currently predicts that the annual CPI growth rate in July will be the same as that in June, which is expected to be 3.0. %, showing a trend of neither rising nor falling.
Image source: Investing.com CPI expected numbers
At the same time, the monthly CPI growth rate in July is likely to climb to 0.2% from 0.1% in June. The monthly core CPI growth rate excluding food and energy prices is also expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.2%, while the core CPI annual growth rate is It is expected to slow down from 3.3% to 3.2%, indicating increasing price pressure.
Market volatility expected to heat up
The CPI data that significantly cooled last month, as well as the labor market showing signs of cooling, have undoubtedly rekindled the market's hope that the Federal Reserve (FED) may cut interest rates in September. As time goes by, the market will be more optimistic about what can happen in the next two months. We are looking forward to the CPI data and hope that the mild inflation data will successfully allow the Federal Reserve (FED) to cut interest rates in September.
However, experts also emphasized that although the market is clamoring for an immediate interest rate cut, given that although the current economic recession has begun to take shape, it will not have enough impact, the Federal Reserve (FED) may adopt a more conservative approach than market expectations. position.
Experts expect that the Federal Reserve (FED) will start a new interest rate cut cycle at the September meeting, but this cycle may start with a smaller range of 1 yard, rather than the larger adjustment that the market is expecting. This is because The current main challenge for the Federal Reserve (FED) is to balance the contradiction between economic growth and inflation. Although inflation has eased, its slowdown is far from the level of economic recession. This is likely to make the Federal Reserve It is difficult to decide on a significant interest rate cut in the short term.
