Golden Weekly is a weekly blockchain industry summary column launched by Golden Finance, covering the week's key news, mining information, project dynamics, technological progress and other industry dynamics. This article is one of the news weekly, taking you through this week's blockchain industry events.
Headlines
▌Trump: The US economy is close to recession
Former US President Trump warned that the US economy is close to a recession; we are very close to a world war.
▌Musk says Neuralink will "give people superpowers"
Elon Musk's brain-computer interface (BCI) startup Neuralink has apparently begun its second human trial. The news came during an appearance on Lex Fridman's podcast, where Musk unceremoniously revealed that the second human trial was a success and "so far so good." Musk went on to say that the second implant was functioning normally, with about 400 electrodes "providing a signal."
▌HSBC strategist: Model shows that US stocks will fall further
HSBC said the stock cycle model suggests that the U.S. stock market is now in a "sell-off" mode, which usually lasts for a month and the S&P 500 index falls an average of 10%. Strategists including Duncan Toms and Max Kettner wrote that the general correction in U.S. stocks has further room to develop. They said that "sell-off" periods tend to be relatively short and may bring opportunities to increase risk exposure at least tactically, but now is not the time because sentiment indicators suggest it is too early to buy on dips.
▌Musk's X will close its San Francisco office
X is moving out of the building that Elon Musk once walked into with the kitchen sink, according to an internal memo reviewed by CNN.
In an email to employees, X CEO Linda Yaccarino said the company will move to new major locations in the Bay Area, including an office in San Jose and a coworking space shared with Musk’s xAI in Palo Alto.
Whatever the specifics, it seems likely that in the future X’s now much smaller workforce will be spread across three offices, working with contractors in other areas.
▌Wintermute founder: Wintermute is buying ETH recently
In response to other users' questions on social media, "Why are you selling ETH recently?" Wishful Cynic, the founder and CEO of Wintermute, said that the organization is actually buying ETH recently. Another user asked, "Is the "buying behavior" mentioned by Wishful Cynic "done through OTC or directly through the order book of the trading platform?" However, Wishful Cynic did not respond directly, and instead asked that there is no difference between the two.
As previously reported, according to monitoring by The Date Nerd on August 7, Wintermute deposited 17,368 ETH, equivalent to $43.17 million, into Binance in the past 24 hours. In addition, on August 5, it was monitored that Wintermute transferred 22,460 ETH from its market-making account and other trading platform accounts to Binance deposit addresses in the past 24 hours, and these ETH were subsequently transferred to the Binance hot wallet (wishful cynic did not respond to this data).
policy
▌The US Democratic Party launched the "Harris's Cryptocurrency" campaign to fight Trump
According to FOX Business, the US Democratic Party launched the "Harris Cryptocurrency" campaign to fight Donald Trump.
▌UK FCA issues new guidance to ensure cryptocurrency promotion compliance
The United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has published new guidance aimed at ensuring that cryptocurrency firms meet compliance requirements for promotion that come into effect in October 2023.
▌Ripple CEO: Respect the court's decision, SEC's resistance to the entire XRP community has disappeared
A US judge announced a $125 million fine against Ripple in the SEC lawsuit. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse responded on the X platform: "The SEC previously demanded $2 billion in compensation. The court believed that they had overacted, so they reduced their request by about 94%. We respect the court's decision and are determined to continue to develop our company. This is a victory for Ripple, the industry, and the rule of law. The SEC's resistance to the entire XRP community has disappeared."
▌U.S. lawmakers propose expanding Secret Service powers to combat cryptocurrency crime
U.S. Senators Catherine Cortez Masto and Chuck Grassley have introduced a new bill aimed at strengthening the Secret Service’s authority to investigate cryptocurrency crimes. The bill would give the Secret Service greater powers to deal with transnational cybercrime activities such as unlicensed money transfers, structured transactions, and financial fraud.
The bill also encourages the Secret Service to work with federal agencies such as the Justice Department and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) to present a unified front. While the bill has support from the financial and cybersecurity sectors, some privacy advocates have expressed concerns about potential overexpansion of power.
▌Two NFT artists file lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
Earlier this week, two NFT artists filed a lawsuit against the SEC to fight back against its unclear approach to environmental regulation. The lawyers said the SEC continues to "strategically ambiguity."
Mango Markets developers ask judge to drop fraud and commodity-related charges
In a 77-page motion filed earlier this week, Mango Markets developer Avraham 'Avi' Eisenberg asked a judge to dismiss fraud and commodities-related charges and request a new trial. His attorneys argued that the Southern District of New York is not the appropriate venue for the trial and said the government failed to prove that Eisenberg intended to manipulate the price of perpetual futures contracts on decentralized cryptocurrency exchange Mango Markets.
Eisenberg’s attorneys say the government has not proved the Commodity Exchange Act applies to the case and that the commodities conviction should be thrown out. Prosecutors did not prove MNGO Perpetual was a swap rather than a “pure security.” “The evidence at trial established that the price was completely irrelevant to Eisenberg because he never attempted to sell any contracts but rather took advantage of his ability to draw down and borrow on open positions to profit,” the attorneys said.
Sentencing is set for Nov. 13, according to court documents.
▌The Federal Reserve accuses Customers Bancorp, which provides services to digital asset clients, of risk management and anti-money laundering deficiencies
The U.S. Federal Reserve said in an enforcement action filed on Thursday it had found "significant deficiencies" in Customers Bancorp Inc (CUBI.N)'s risk management and compliance with anti-money laundering laws.
The bank, which serves digital asset clients, agreed to submit a written plan to the Fed to strengthen “board oversight” of its anti-money laundering requirements and sanctions-related rules. Under the agreement, the bank also agreed to submit a plan to improve risk management practices for its “digital asset strategy.”
The Fed also required Customers Bancorp to submit a revised customer due diligence program that should include documentation to verify customer identities and "identify customers who are at higher risk of engaging in potential illicit activity at or through the bank."
Blockchain Applications
▌Abu Dhabi launches blockchain center to promote blockchain innovation
A center designed to drive blockchain innovation and establish Abu Dhabi as a global hub for top events and seminars, connecting industry leaders, has officially opened. In addition, the Blockchain Center will establish a venture capital department to support and invest in Web3 startups. The center will serve as a platform for launching the latest blockchain technology applications. Commenting on the unveiling of the center, Abdulla Al Dhaheri, CEO of the Blockchain Center, said, "We are delighted to launch the Blockchain Center in Abu Dhabi. Our vision is to create a global blockchain innovation, education and collaboration center in Abu Dhabi."
▌Renzo Lianchuang: ezETH performs well in anchoring, oracle and liquidity stability
Lucas Kozinski, co-founder of the liquidity re-hypothecation protocol Renzo, posted on the , mainly reflected in: the withdrawal function has been enabled since early June; the oracle has been updated to reduce the risk of serial liquidations; liquidity has been significantly improved, but there is still more work to be done in this regard.
▌TON blockchain game manager: Currently about 20% of Telegram users are playing games
Inal Kardan, head of TON blockchain games, said that currently about 20% of Telegram users are playing games, while as recently as December last year, only about 1% of Telegram's monthly active users played games on the app.
▌Analysis: Ethereum L2 solution may trigger market concerns about liquidity fragmentation
Several analysts have pointed out that the proliferation of Ethereum Layer 2 solutions is raising concerns about liquidity fragmentation. Patrick Liou, head of sales at Gemini, said that the emergence of multiple Layer 2 blockchains, while intended to solve scalability issues, has inadvertently weakened the operation and adoption of blockchains and their applications. Although it is not easy to transfer liquidity from one blockchain to another, advances in bridging applications are making the process smoother. Gemini's report shows that a new Ethereum Layer 2 appears every 19 days, further exacerbating the problem of fragmented liquidity.
Cryptocurrency
▌April’s Bitcoin halving caused Riot Platforms’ second-quarter losses to widen
Crypto mining company Riot Platforms recorded a net loss of $84.4 million in the second quarter of this year, compared to $27.4 million in the same period last year. The widening losses of the US Bitcoin mining company are the result of the continued impact of the Bitcoin halving in April. Riot CEO Jason Les commented, "In April of this year, the Bitcoin network had its second quarter 'halving', a pre-set event where the Bitcoin block subsidy that miners receive from the network is reduced by half every four years. Despite the reduction in available output for all Bitcoin miners, Riot's revenue for the quarter was $70 million."
▌The total open interest of ETH contracts fell to $12.421 billion
According to Coinglass data, the total open interest of ETH futures contracts on the entire network is 4.496 million ETH, equivalent to approximately $12.421 billion. Among them, the open interest of Binance ETH contracts is 1.4536 million ETH (approximately $4.013 billion), ranking first.
ETH falls below $2,700 again
The market shows that ETH fell below $2,700 and is now trading at $2,699.13, with a daily drop of 7.18%. The market is volatile, so please do a good job of risk control.
▌Bitfinex: The overall market trend will depend on macroeconomic factors
Bitfinex released a report stating that Bitcoin failed to hold the key support level of $65,580, and the total liquidation in the past 24 hours reached $1.16 billion, mainly affecting long positions. Despite the bearish market sentiment and sharp declines in Japanese and US stock markets, prices are expected to rise slightly to the $55,000 area. However, the overall market direction will depend on macroeconomic factors.
Broad market instability, driven by economic and political developments, is affecting both cryptocurrencies and traditional financial markets. Recent turmoil in the Japanese stock market and losses on Wall Street highlight the interconnectedness of global markets. Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional financial markets is increasing, and if the stock market continues to fall, Bitcoin is expected to face continued downward pressure.
▌Lookonchain: Whales/Institutions Still Seem to Be Selling ETH
According to Lookonchain monitoring, whales/institutions appear to still be selling ETH.
The whale address starting with 0x6229 deposited 19,557 ETH (about 48.14 million US dollars) into Binance 1 hour ago.
Metalpha deposited 10,000 ETH (about $24.5 million) into Binance 2 hours ago.
▌Michael Saylor: Bitcoin will be another "Louisiana Purchase moment" for the United States
MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor said Bitcoin will be America’s next “Louisiana Purchase moment.”
Michael Saylor previously predicted that by 2045, the price of each Bitcoin will reach about $13 million.
▌Coinbase: GenAI platform Coinbase-GPT will customize personalized solutions for users
Coinbase’s official blog post stated that generative artificial intelligence (GenAI), including large language models (LLM) and other modes such as image generation, is changing the industry by improving efficiency and productivity. GenAI’s versatile technology can read, write, encode and draw, which can improve creativity and productivity in various industries such as retail, finance, manufacturing and healthcare. If used strategically, GenAI can drive innovation and provide a competitive advantage in today’s data-driven environment.
CB-GPT, short for Coinbase-GPT, is a unified platform for all GenAI applications at Coinbase. By building and managing Coinbase's own GenAI platform, Coinbase is able to customize solutions based on unique crypto use cases and Coinbase customer base. With CB-GPT, Coinbase aims to provide an intuitive experience through its products, providing personalized and contextual support at all times, creating rich opportunities for a wide range of users (from individuals to institutional investors) to learn, explore and participate in the crypto economy.
Grayscale, Bitwise, and NYSE propose to allow options trading on spot Ethereum ETFs
Grayscale and Bitwise, together with the New York Stock Exchange, submitted a rule change proposal to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), proposing to allow trading of options on the Bitwise Ethereum ETF, Grayscale Ethereum Trust, and Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust. The document states that these options will provide investors with an additional, relatively low-cost investment tool, while serving as a hedging tool to meet investors' investment needs for Ethereum products and positions. Public comments on the proposal will expire in 21 days. Several companies are also seeking trading permission for spot Bitcoin ETF options, but have not yet been approved.
▌Mining company Core Scientific reported a net loss of $804.9 million in the second quarter
Bitcoin mining company Core Scientific announced financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2024. Net loss was $804.9 million, compared with a net loss of $9.3 million in the same period of 2023. Total revenue was $141.1 million, compared with $126.9 million in the same period of 2023. Operating income was $6.6 million, compared with $9.5 million in the same period of 2023. Adjusted EBITDA was $46 million, compared with $45 million in the same period of 2023. The loss was mainly due to a net non-cash adjustment of warrants and other contingent value liabilities to market value of $796 million, due to a significant increase in equity value between quarters.
▌Analysis: Cryptocurrency sell-off, beware of wider risk trading
Bitcoin turned down during the day. Adam Button, an analyst at the financial website Forexlive, said: This is now a sentiment-driven market, and Bitcoin has always been a good forerunner of market sentiment, so I have been paying close attention to it. In the past 30 minutes or so, Bitcoin has fallen by $1,000. Ethereum also fell 3%, giving up all of yesterday's gains. The performance of US spot ETFs since their launch has been a disaster. Given these trends, I will be cautious about the Nasdaq index and broader risk trading.
Important economic developments
▌The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September is 71.5%
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 28.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 71.5%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 19.3%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 57.6%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 23.2%.
▌Goldman Sachs CEO: The Federal Reserve is not expected to cut interest rates urgently, and may cut interest rates 1-2 times in the fall
Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon expects the Federal Reserve to avoid an emergency rate cut because he believes the U.S. economy will avoid a recession. "I don't expect to see any progress before September. The economy will develop smoothly and there may not be a recession," Solomon said in an interview. "Based on the economic data we are seeing and the information sent by the Federal Reserve, I think there may be one or two rate cuts this fall," Solomon said.
Solomon said: The recent stock market correction may be healthy. The Federal Reserve will abandon its emergency rate cut and does not expect a recession in the United States.
▌Bank of America: There is no need for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the scale of a recession
The brokerage team of Bank of America Securities said in a report that the Federal Reserve's September rate cut is a foregone conclusion, but there is no need for a radical rate cut that will cause a recession. Almost all of the increase in the unemployment rate in July came from temporary layoffs, indicating only temporary weakness. Employment may rebound in the August report and the unemployment rate may fall. "Without layoffs, there will be no recession in the United States, and the layoff rate remains extremely low," they said. Bank of America believes that the rate cut cycle will begin in September, with a quarterly rate cut of 25 basis points until the terminal rate of 3.25%-3.5% is reached in mid-2026. "Aggressive rate cuts of 50 basis points or more are made in emergencies, as are actions taken between meetings, but we are not there yet."
▌CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September is 83%
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 17%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 83%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 75 basis points by November is 7.4%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 45.8%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 125 basis points is 46.8%.
▌Fed's Daly: Open to cutting interest rates at the September meeting, does not think the weakness in the labor market will worsen
Daly, 2024 FOMC voting member and president of the San Francisco Fed, said in a speech that the Fed’s mission and the risks it faces are becoming balanced, and that it is open to cutting interest rates at the upcoming (September) meeting.
"The underlying data in the July jobs report provides some reason for confidence that we are slowing but not collapsing," Daly said. "I don't think the weakness in the labor market will intensify now and will be watching closely to see if the next job market report reflects the same dynamics or a reversal. If we react to just one data point, we will almost always be wrong."
Disclaimer: As a blockchain information platform, Golden Finance publishes articles for information reference only and is not intended as actual investment advice. Please establish a correct investment philosophy and be sure to raise your risk awareness.
