● The prediction market expects BTC and ETH to hit new highs in 2025
According to Cointelegraph, traders from Polymarket and Kalshi expect Bitcoin and Ether to reach all-time highs in 2025 and predict that the US will approve various crypto ETFs and establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Polymarket also expects that US regulators will approve ETFs for XRP, Solana, and Litecoin by July 31, with probabilities of 75%, 69%, and 51%, respectively. The probability of approval for a Dogecoin ETF is 22%.
● Bitwise applies to the SEC for a 'Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF'
According to PANews, Bitwise has applied to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF. This fund aims to invest in the stocks of companies that adopt the Bitcoin standard, with at least 1,000 BTC in company funds.
According to Odaily Planet Daily, the number of first-time unemployment benefit claims in the US decreased last week, indicating that the US economy is still avoiding a large-scale layoff wave in the last phase of 2024. The US Department of Labor stated that 219,000 people applied for new unemployment benefits in the week ending December 21, down from 220,000 the previous week, while the market expected 225,000.
The current unemployment rate in the US is 4.2%, which is still relatively mild by the standards of the past decade. However, the unemployment rate has slightly increased during 2024, indicating a softening labor market, as reflected in the decrease in job vacancies per job seeker, the drop in new job creation, and more industries cutting hiring. According to CME's 'Fed Watch', there is still a 91.4% probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in January, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.6%.
According to Odaily Planet Daily, Hong Kong and Singapore have led regulatory progress in the Asian cryptocurrency market in 2024. By 2025, the Asian market is expected to further develop its regulatory environment, improving frameworks to enhance cryptocurrency adoption. Industry insiders believe that if Hong Kong becomes the only jurisdiction offering staking functions, it could bring new advantages. Markets like Singapore and Hong Kong may launch more innovative financial products and improve frameworks to promote adoption.
● The US Congress is expected to restart cryptocurrency legislation in 2025
According to reports, the US Congress is expected to restart cryptocurrency legislation in 2025, with several key bills such as (FIT21) and stablecoin regulation expected to become priority issues. (FIT21) aims to grant the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) more regulatory authority and clarify the jurisdiction of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
At the same time, the 'Strategic Bitcoin Reserve' plan previously proposed by Trump may also become a focal point, but it still needs to overcome partisan divisions and competing policy priorities. Analysts believe that the policy inclination of the new Congress may bring a clearer regulatory framework and development opportunities for the US cryptocurrency industry.
According to Odaily Planet Daily, after Trump wins the election, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Ohio are considering adopting unique frameworks to establish a Bitcoin reserve. Eli Cohen, Chief Legal Officer of Centrifuge, stated that this development is very beneficial for the cryptocurrency market. Experts are debating the feasibility of implementing this at the federal level and its market impact.
It is reported that Trump proposed establishing a federal strategic Bitcoin reserve during his campaign, and with his inauguration approaching, several states have begun considering trial implementations.
According to BlockBeats, on December 26, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that the government currently lacks sufficient information to consider Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. Meanwhile, the US and Brazil are exploring similar initiatives.
