According to TechFlow, market indicators show that Trump will face the highest valuation in the U.S. stock market in history during his new term. Data shows that the proportion of U.S. household stock allocation has increased from 48.3% at the beginning of 2024 to 51.8%.
This indicator has significant four-year return prediction ability since 1952, and current data predicts that the actual annualized return of U.S. stocks from 2025 to 2029 may be -1.5%.
Although the S&P 500 achieved an inflation-adjusted annualized return of 9.3% after household stock allocations hit a record high in 2020, current valuation indicators are at historical highs, indicating that U.S. stock returns may only be on par with inflation in the next four years. Trump will face major challenges if he wants to maintain the tradition of using stock market performance as a political achievement.