● Trump will nominate cryptocurrency advocate Paul Atkins as SEC chairman
According to Odaily Planet Daily, market news states that Trump has confirmed the nomination of cryptocurrency advocate Paul Atkins as chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
According to Golden Finance, on December 4th, Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated that established cryptocurrencies that have been around since 2021 staged a spectacular rebound in the past two weeks. XRP broke the 2021 high of $2, with an astonishing increase of 400% since November, reaching a peak price of $2.90. Other established cryptocurrencies such as ADA, HBAR, and XLM achieved increases of 300%, 800%, and 600%, respectively.
QCP Capital pointed out that the frenzy in the altcoin market is due to Trump's announcement in November of a proposal aimed at eliminating capital gains tax on cryptocurrencies issued by American companies. Additionally, expectations for a friendly cryptocurrency cabinet in the U.S. have further fueled this wave. Rumors suggest that Gary Gensler, who has been a headache for the cryptocurrency community, will be replaced by Paul Atkins to lead the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Other candidates also seem to hold a friendly attitude towards cryptocurrency. Howard Lutnick, currently the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, is about to take office as Secretary of Commerce. Cantor Fitzgerald is currently in negotiations with Tether, making Lutnick appear to be a supporter of cryptocurrency.
QCP Capital noted that the martial law issued in South Korea did little to quell the market's frenzy. Following the announcement of martial law, South Korean traders reduced their positions, and Bitcoin fell to a low of 93,500. However, the subsequent buyback activity in major cryptocurrencies and altcoins only indicates how strong the market's buying interest is. "We have indeed seen some macro risks recently. Concerns about inflation rising again have led the market to reduce expectations for the number of rate cuts in the U.S. in 2025 to just three. The geopolitical risks posed by Trump regarding Mexico, Canada, and BRICS countries also exist. Despite these risks, we believe the cryptocurrency market still has potential for growth. Trump's team is likely to formulate cryptocurrency-friendly policies to attract more institutional investor interest. It is possible for Bitcoin to break the $100,000 barrier, while Ethereum reaching a new historical high seems more like an impending reality rather than a dream."
● The altcoin market capitalization increased by 78.16% in one month but is still below the 2021 peak
According to PANews, Tradingview data shows that since November 4th, the total market capitalization of altcoins has risen from $870 billion to $1.55 trillion, an increase of approximately 78.16%. Nevertheless, it remains below the pre-bull market high of $1.71 trillion in November 2021.
During the same period, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies rose from $2.25 trillion to $3.46 trillion, exceeding the approximately $3 trillion during the same period of the November 2021 bull market. Bitcoin's market share decreased from 61.35% at the peak of this bull market to 55.17%, but it is still higher than about 45% during the same period in 2021.
● Data: Binance's fund inflows in 2024 lead the total inflows of the next ten exchanges by nearly 40%
According to DefiLlama's rankings, so far this year, the global largest digital asset exchange Binance's user fund inflow is nearly 40% higher than the total of the next ten cryptocurrency exchanges in terms of registered users and trading volume.
According to data from the platform, as of 2024, Binance's fund inflow is $21.6 billion, while the inflow of the next ten exchanges is $15.9 billion (surpassing 36%). Binance's global user base has grown to 244 million. Another strong driver of fund inflows may be the success of Binance's Launchpool program this year, reflecting the growing user interest in new tokens. Binance has observed that these funds tend to stay on the platform.
Binance CEO Richard Teng stated, "2024 will be a milestone year for the cryptocurrency industry, and we are very grateful for our 244 million users, who continue to trust Binance as their chosen trading platform. Their unwavering support and confidence drive us to innovate and provide the best experience in the digital asset world."
According to data from digital asset data provider CCData, another recently recorded milestone further highlights Binance's leadership in the cryptocurrency market, as it is the first centralized cryptocurrency exchange with a cumulative trading volume exceeding $100 trillion.
On-chain and market data analysis provider CryptoQuant emphasized that this year "marks a significant shift in the cryptocurrency industry, as exchanges report a sharp increase in average deposits of Bitcoin and USDT, indicating an increase in institutional participation. The average Bitcoin deposit across all exchanges has risen from 0.36 BTC in 2023 to 1.65 BTC, while USDT deposits have soared from $19,600 to $230,000. These larger deposits reflect the growing interest of professional and institutional investors, distinguishing institutional activity from retail trading." Their report stated, "Binance has led the industry in institutional growth, with the largest increase in average Bitcoin deposits among major exchanges."
According to Jin Ten Data, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated that the U.S. economy is performing well and that inflation continues to show progress. Therefore, the Federal Reserve has room to continue exercising caution regarding interest rate cuts.
According to ChainCatcher, Federal Reserve's Musalem stated that the risk of loosening policy too much and too quickly outweighs that of loosening too little. There is uncertainty regarding the neutral interest rate, which may be between 3% and 4%. The Federal Reserve's policy rate is currently far above the neutral level.
● CME "FedWatch": The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is 74%
According to Jin Ten Data, CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate in December is 26%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 74%. By January next year, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 19.9%, while the probabilities of cutting by 25 basis points and 50 basis points are 62.7% and 17.4%, respectively.
● The increase in ADP employment in the U.S. in November was the smallest since August
According to Deep Tide TechFlow, the U.S. ADP employment numbers increased by 146,000 in November, marking the smallest increase since August 2024. The expectation was for an increase of 150,000, with the previous value revised from 233,000 to 184,000.
