The leeks who just experienced the August 5th crash were still crying and howling a week ago.
Today, KOLs all over the screen started shouting, "The bull is coming back soon!"
The emotions of the leeks are not stable at all. They are completely lost in the acceleration of KOLs.
The price has just crossed 60,000 and hasn’t even reached the moving average of the past six months. Are you excited?
one,
Let's review the recent volatility. The global stock market plunged due to the unwinding of the yen carry trade.
The rapid rise in volatility has exacerbated the stampede-like sell-off in stock markets around the world. During trading on August 5, VIX spot prices once rose by more than 50%.
According to historical data, the surge in VIX is mostly due to event shocks.
When the financial situation is relatively good, the VIX surge caused by event shocks will fall back quickly.
However, if the balance sheet structure of U.S. companies or residents is not healthy, or if there are problems with the financial situation of U.S. companies themselves
The U.S. stock market recovered more slowly from the shock.
Last night's US stock market closed up sharply, and VIX also fell sharply. It can be basically judged that the surge in VIX this time is an event factor.
It is not a structural factor. There are no structural problems in the fundamentals of the U.S. stock market and the U.S. market.
So in fact, the recession that everyone was worried about did not occur.
The factors that led to the sharp fall in the cryptocurrency market no longer exist, so the rebound of the cryptocurrency market is natural and hot, which is what the topic implies.
There's nothing mysterious about this.
So the prediction of the rebound of cryptocurrency in the previous article
It is based on such a basic logic.
two,
Let's pay attention to what the real god in the investment circle, Mr. Ba, is doing
According to the latest disclosed figures, as of last month, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway held $234.6 billion in U.S. short-term Treasury bills.
What is this concept? Let me tell you directly
The size of this holding is even larger than that of the Federal Reserve.
The yield of this short-term debt is not high, but its characteristic is safety.
As of August 2, the yield on 3-month Treasury bills was 5.05%, and the yield on 6-month Treasury bills was 4.68%.
The yield on the 12-month Treasury bill is 4.18%
Mr. Ba desperately sold his U.S. stocks and continued to increase his holdings of short-term bonds.
Even this short-term bond with a low yield
This action is far more real than his recent remarks.
This kind of language of voting with feet is the most authentic expression.
That is, he must think that the valuation of U.S. stocks is too high, and the rate of return from continued investment in U.S. stocks will not be higher than his return on U.S. short-term bonds.
The leeks will say that such a low rate of return is not in line with Mr. Ba’s style!
Some people will say, where in the cryptocurrency world have you seen such a low rate of return?
The goal of the leeks has always been to increase their coins by 100 times or 1,000 times.
You see, unlike Mr. Newton, Mr. Buffett is the person who is closest to a god in the current investment circle.
The expectation of the rate of return for the top-level people is about 10%.
What kind of mysterious self-confidence do the leeks have that makes them believe they can always get tenfold or a hundredfold returns?
three,
There is a highly praised question and answer in a certain forum
Question: If I invest 1,000 yuan in the cryptocurrency world, how long will it take to reach 100,000 yuan?
The answers there used a lot of space to describe various methods and calibers, and then used a lot of space to describe how they achieved financial freedom in the cryptocurrency circle and earned a small goal.
With just a quick look, I can tell that most of the people answering here are among the leeks.
Most of them may never have seen the so-called wealth of financial freedom.
So most of the methods they describe in their answers
They themselves may not believe it.
These KOL leeks have only one thing to do, which is to harvest leeks!
So I sincerely tell the newbies, Mr. Leek
Please don’t be in a hurry to be ripped off, first settle down in the cryptocurrency circle for half a year.
Then read any valuable articles you can find - such as my past articles
Then you might form a basic thinking framework
Have a basic and correct understanding of the cryptocurrency circle
Have the basic ability to distinguish circles
Then consider joining some powerful clubs.
Don't worry, really, all the leeks and white
This coin circle will exist for a long, long time
I also hope that you can survive in this cryptocurrency circle for a long, long time.
So I spent half a year to settle myself
Not an exaggeration at all.
Getting rich overnight is all myth and is not suitable for you.
Four,
Finally, let’s talk about the recent market conditions.
There are a large number of whale addresses that have shown a lot of bottom-fishing behavior in recent days.
The main targets for bottom fishing are BTC, ETH and SOL
These three currencies are also the most cost-effective currencies in my opinion in this round of bull-bear cycle.
Including when the BTC price fell to 49,000, big institutions in the market such as BlackRock
There was no selling.
Instead, it is absorbing a large amount of funds.
Judging from this action, there is a 70% probability that 49,000 is the low point of this cycle.
So in the price range of 49,000~57,000,
We can increase our positions with relative confidence.
In other words, as long as the price is within this range, it is relatively safe to add positions.
And it has recently reached 61,000. Can I still increase my position?
It depends on your own position ratio.
If you are still short, you might as well configure some
If your position exceeds 50%.
Well, let’s take a look at BTC’s Fear and Greed Index
Today is 48, neutral.
This shows that the market is also looking for direction.
You might as well wait
What do you think?
