PANews reported on August 8 that according to Jinshi, JPMorgan Chase now believes that there is a 35% chance that the US economy will fall into recession by the end of this year, up from 25% at the beginning of last month. JPMorgan economists led by Bruce Kasman wrote in a report to clients on Wednesday that the news from the United States "suggests that the weakening of labor demand is more severe than expected, and initial signs of layoffs are emerging." The team maintained the probability of a recession in the second half of 2025 at 45%. "We have moderately raised our assessment of the risk of a recession, compared to a larger adjustment in our assessment of the interest rate outlook," Kasman and his colleagues wrote. JPMorgan Chase now believes that there is only a 30% chance that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will keep interest rates high for a long time, compared to a 50% chance predicted just two months ago. As inflation pressure in the United States declines, JPMorgan Chase expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September and November respectively.