The use of the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase facility (PPR) fell below $300 billion to $292 billion for the first time since mid-2021. The Fed's overnight reverse repurchase facility is a reservoir of funds, where banks and other institutions deposit cash to earn interest. The current RRP interest rate is 5.3%. Wall Street analysts warned that the decline in RRP use may indicate that excess liquidity has been eliminated from the financial system.

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The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has launched a one-month public consultation on the proposal to change the name of "virtual banks" to "digital banks". Virtual banks have achieved the three policy goals of introducing virtual banks in Hong Kong. By the end of 2023, the number of depositors of virtual banks has reached 2.2 million, and the market has responded well to the products and services provided by eight virtual banks. After the sharp drop, Shinichi Uchida, deputy governor of the Bank of Japan, said that if the financial market is unstable, the Bank of Japan will not raise the policy interest rate. This is Uchida's first public statement after the historic collapse of the Japanese stock market. The recent market trend is "extremely unstable" and the Bank of Japan needs to maintain an accommodative monetary policy for the time being. After Shinichi Uchida made these remarks, the yen's decline quickly widened to 2%, and the Nikkei 225 Index and the Topix Index rebounded by more than 3%. Jump Trading transferred 11,500 ETH to the sale address and continued to apply to redeem 19,049stETH into ETH. On August 7, Australia's Monochrome spot BTCETF IBTC held 109 BTC. Digital asset broker FalconX said that on August 7, almost all investors were net buyers, including proprietary trading desks (57% of total buy-side traffic), hedge funds (63%), venture funds (61%), and retail aggregators (72%). The buy/sell ratio, which was below 50% last week, is now above 50%. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said that in the past 30 days, 404,448 BTC have been transferred to long-term holder addresses, which is a large accumulation phenomenon. According to lookonchain data, during the market crash, the entity "7 Siblings" with $1.57 billion in assets bought 56,093 ETH at the bottom. Matrixport reported that BTC appears to be oversold, and its relative strength index (RSI) has dropped to 30%. This low RSI level usually indicates the bottom of BTC. Although this does not guarantee that the price will not fall further, it indicates that the current decline may slow down. When the RSI drops to this low point recently, buying opportunities usually appear within a few days. As macroeconomic and geopolitical risks persist and U.S. technology stocks’ earnings are less than optimistic, caution remains critical.

On August 7, the bankruptcy liquidation of Genesis Trading continued. During the period of 08.02-08.03, the bankruptcy liquidation address of Genesis Trading has sent BTC and ETH worth more than 2.11 billion US dollars to major entity addresses. According to the liquidation plan approved by the court, 77% of customer assets worth 3 billion US dollars will be returned. The specific form of return is stablecoin or BTC/ETH. It is not clearly stated, so whether its bankruptcy liquidation procedure will cause selling pressure on the market remains unknown. On August 7, the cryptocurrency panic and greed index was 29 (17 yesterday), and the market panic sentiment has eased. On August 6, the US BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of 149 million US dollars. On August 6, the US ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of 99.8 million US dollars. Among them, Grayscale ETHE had a net outflow of 39.7 million US dollars, BlackRock ETHA had a net inflow of 111.3 million US dollars, and Fidelity FETH had a net inflow of 22.5 million US dollars. On August 7, Cumberland received 95 million stablecoins from Tether and transferred them to the centralized platform. Cumberland has injected 6.28 billion stablecoins into the cryptocurrency market since October 20, 2023. CB researcher David Duong said: Market uneasiness will continue in the short term, and shorts may be squeezed, leading to a market rebound in the next few days. The market pullback is consistent with its defensive strategy for the third quarter of 2024, and more positive market performance is expected in the fourth quarter. Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon said that the Federal Reserve will avoid emergency rate cuts because he believes that the economy will avoid a recession, and the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates one or two times this fall. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said that no matter who wins the US election, they will print dollars, they just have different ways, but the US dollar will definitely be printed, so cryptocurrencies will rise, and the road may be very bumpy, but it will eventually go there. On Tuesday, the use of the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase facility (PPR) fell below $300 billion to $292 billion for the first time since mid-2021. The Fed's overnight reverse repo facility is a reservoir of funds, where banks and other institutions deposit cash to earn interest. The current RRP rate is 5.3%. Wall Street analysts warned that the decline in RRP usage may indicate that excess liquidity has been eliminated from the financial system and that banks have insufficient reserve balances. Economist Steven Blit said that if the Fed stagnates or waits for data to push, they will repeat the same mistakes, and the probability of a recession later this year will climb to 75%. By the end of the year, the Fed may cut interest rates by 100 basis points. If the Fed takes action, the probability of a recession will be lower, not zero.

The Bank of Japan has stepped in to calm the market, and JPMorgan Chase has called on the Federal Reserve to stabilize the situation as soon as possible, as a recession and a larger stock market correction could occur at any time. The sell-off was triggered by weak US economic data and Japan's unexpected rate hike, and should be a signal from the Fed that it needs to do more to help investors regain confidence in the economy and get through this period of extreme volatility. S&P expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, starting a new round of easing cycles, with a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points this year and another 100 basis points next year, which will help the Fed achieve a soft landing. Analyst Mike Dolan believes that this stock market sell-off is because traders overreacted to the overestimation of the possibility of a recession, and the interest rate market may not even have priced in a recession at all. The Fed only needs to release the tightening "brake" to keep the market expanding. Looking at the futures and money market pricing on Monday, traders' expectations for the so-called terminal rate over the next 18 months have never been lower than 2.85%, even during the most volatile days of the day. Currently, investment banks that believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September include Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo, and believe that the rate cut this year will reach 125 basis points. Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, UBS, etc. believe that the rate cut will be 25 basis points in September. The expected rate cut for next year is between 100-150 basis points. Currently in the transition period from tightening to easing, it is generally believed that the Federal Reserve will turn to easing after September and continue to release water until next year. The use of the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool (PPR) has fallen below US$300 billion to US$292 billion for the first time since mid-2021, only about one-tenth of the peak period. PPR was once considered a weathervane for the Federal Reserve to stop tightening. Since the sharp interest rate hike in 2022, the US stock market has repeatedly threatened the Federal Reserve, including the bankruptcy of US community banks in early 2023, the US stock market waterfall in September 2023, and the US stock market waterfall again in August 2024. The script is not new. During this period, the Fed has stopped raising interest rates and reduced the scale of balance sheet reduction. The Nasdaq index has also quietly risen from about 10,000 points to around 16,000 points, and the market has fluctuated violently. The volatility of the currency market has expanded every time it has a correction, and it will also expand every time it rises. The script is not new, and it can be performed step by step, waiting for the Fed's water release cycle to come.#加密市场反弹 #美联储何时降息？ #美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易