Daily Summary:
BTC mining costs $43,000, the market rebounds but the outlook is unclear
The average cost of mining Bitcoin for U.S. miners is about $43,000
Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, wrote that the current average Bitcoin mining cost for U.S. mining companies is about $43,000.
Marathon Digital showed in its Q2 2024 report that the company’s average mining cost per Bitcoin is $42,969. This can be calculated using their operating hash rate, cost per gigahash per day, and average Bitcoin mined per day.
Arthur Hayes: No matter who is the president of the United States, the government will print money and it will be good for cryptocurrencies
Arthur Hayes, a well-known KOL in the crypto community, said in an interview with the media that whether Trump or Harris wins the next US presidential election is not important to the crypto industry.
While the crypto industry has donated a lot of money to Trump, it’s not enough to surpass JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Citibank, and Goldman Sachs, and these institutions are staffed by people from these banks, so while it would be great for Trump to be elected and do these things, he may run into the same problems he had in his first term.
Regarding Bitcoin and monetary policy, Hayes said that whether it is the Trump administration or the Harris administration, they will print money; they just do it in different ways. But money will definitely be printed, so cryptocurrencies will rise, and the road may be very bumpy, but in the end we know where it will go.
Yesterday’s DEX transaction volume exceeded US$20.2 billion, setting a record high
According to DUNE data, the total transaction volume of decentralized trading platforms (DEX) exceeded US$20.2 billion yesterday, setting the third highest record in history. The previous two records were the Silicon Valley bank run in 2023 ($23.1 billion) and the Luna crash in May 2021 ($22.8 billion).
Market Analysis
Market trend:
Bitcoin: Bitcoin is still above $56,000 and is in a consolidation phase after an oversold rebound. BTC spot ETFs continue to experience large net outflows, and the market still needs more time to repair. In the short term, Bitcoin's price fluctuations may continue to be affected by market sentiment and the external macroeconomic environment.
Ethereum: Ethereum's performance is relatively weak, and the overall trading volume of spot ETFs is lower than expected. However, the net outflow of ETHE from Grayscale has gradually decreased, which may bring some positive signals to the market. The future trend of Ethereum needs to pay close attention to the development of its ecosystem and the inflow of ETF funds.
Altcoins: Altcoins are generally in a correction phase, but the SOL/ETH exchange rate hit a new high, showing the strong performance of some high-quality altcoins. Overall, more than 70% of the tokens in the market are in an upward state, indicating that market sentiment has warmed up.
Data indicator analysis
AHR999 Index: Today's AHR999 Index is 0.61, getting closer and closer to the bottom-picking index. This means that the market may be approaching a relative low point, and investors can start to consider building positions in batches.
Fear and Greed Index: The current Fear and Greed Index is 29, indicating that market sentiment has improved slightly from extreme fear, but is still in a depressed state. This depressed sentiment is expected to continue for some time, and investors should remain cautious.
Market Hotspots
1. Solana Ecosystem
Solana (SOL) performed strongly, with the price approaching $150, rebounding nearly 40% from the low point, making it the best rebound among the top ten tokens by market value. The SOL/ETH exchange rate broke through the historical high, showing the strong demand for Solana in the market. Tokens such as WEN, JUP, and WIF in the Solana ecosystem also performed well. In particular, JUP passed a proposal to cut the token supply by 30% last weekend, which may provide further support for its price.
2. Game public chain Ron
Unlike other tokens, RON continued to fall during the rebound because $12 million was stolen from the project. Ron has been stolen many times before, and the team's fund security issues have not been resolved, which has dealt a serious blow to investor confidence.
3. Meme section
Cat-related meme coins performed well, with MEW and POPCAT rebounding more than 50% from their lows. However, the market enthusiasm for political concept tokens has cooled significantly, with tokens such as FIGHT and FEARNOT falling 90% from their historical highs. Investors should remain vigilant when paying attention to meme coins and avoid chasing high prices.
Macroeconomics: The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September exceeded 70%.
The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 1.04% to 5,240.03 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.76% to 38,997.66 points; and the Nasdaq up 1.03% to 16,366.85 points.
Some analysts say that the dollar is currently climbing against the yen because the market believes that the Bank of Japan may take a wait-and-see approach to interest rates. This shifts the focus to the Federal Reserve. For now, the Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut interest rates next month to avoid the first cut being too close to the US election. According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 28.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 71.5%.
In the Asian session on Wednesday, the speech of the Bank of Japan officials supported the market rebound. The Nikkei 225 index rose 3% during the day, the Topix index rose more than 3%, and the dollar-yen rose 1.8% to 146.55. The South Korean KOSPI index rose 2%. The three major A-share indices collectively turned positive. The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 1%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.95%. The Taiwan Weighted Index rose 3%.
"The key factor for Japanese and global stock markets is the strength of the yen, which itself is an expression of the outlook for the U.S. economy," said Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst. "Currently, USD/JPY is hovering around 145. If it remains relatively stable, or even rises, it will support the Nikkei's recovery and return to normalcy."
Former European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Tuesday that the recent rapid rebound in the yen exchange rate can be seen as a healthy correction that is "late but coming", and there is no need to worry that this situation will trigger wider market turmoil. He believes that there are three major factors that have caused the yen to strengthen: the Bank of Japan's policy turn hawkish, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and disappointing US employment data. He therefore said that it is well known that the yen exchange rate was previously in an unreasonably undervalued range, and it is reasonable for investors to buy the yen for carry trades.
Summarize
Overall, the cryptocurrency market is currently in a stage of adjustment and consolidation. The trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum are relatively stable, but they still need time to recover. Solana has performed strongly and has become one of the highlights of the market. For long-term investors, you can consider gradually building positions when market sentiment is low. For short-term traders, you should pay close attention to market hotspots, especially the Solana ecosystem and the Meme coin sector. Continue to pay attention to the macroeconomic environment and policy changes, which will have an important impact on market trends.
