1.Arthur Hayes: This is just the first wave of decline
Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, said that this is only the first wave (down), and we are waiting for the corpse of the TradFi leveraged puppet to surface before the second wave begins. If a rescue is to be carried out, the market needs to bring more pain before Friday. Previously, he said that he heard that TradFi companies were selling all cryptocurrencies, and most of the comments were hinting at Jump.
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2. Japanese and Korean stock markets rebounded sharply
The Nikkei 225 index rose 8% to 34,000 points in early trading, recovering most of yesterday's losses. The USD/JPY rose 1.50% to 146.34. In addition, the Australian S&P/ASX200 index opened up 8.00 points, or 0.10%, to 7,657.60 points on August 6 (Tuesday). The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1% to 167.76 points.
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3. QCP Capital: The market will continue to fluctuate before the Fed and Bank of Japan’s policies become clear, and an emergency rate cut is unlikely
The U.S. has once again provided much-needed support amid market panic, especially in crypto markets, with Coinbase seeing strong spot buying on its order book. By the end of the U.S. trading session, Bitcoin was back up to $56,000 and Ethereum was back up to $2,500. Macro markets have rebounded significantly, with Japanese stocks up 9% today and U.S. futures also pointing to a potential rebound. Although the VIX index has retreated from 65, it is still above 30 and the market will continue to be volatile until there is clarity on the policies of the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. The QCP believes an emergency rate cut is unlikely as it would seriously damage the Fed's credibility and add to market panic, fueling expectations of an imminent recession. Additionally, risk aversion yesterday resulted in a large number of leveraged positions being liquidated.
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4. Blofin: Data does not support the US recession
The first concern is whether the current market risks have been fully digested and what expectations should be maintained in the short to medium term. The next step is to observe the actions of the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan may lack sufficient cash reserves to continue to intervene through the bond market and may choose to raise interest rates quickly to narrow the interest rate gap with the Fed and return the yen exchange rate to a more reasonable level. However, the possibility of the unwinding of carry trades triggering a complete reversal of the US financial cycle is low, because the fundamental employment and economic data do not support an imminent recession. The end of the carry trade still affects investor sentiment, and bearish expectations in the short and medium term are spreading in multiple markets. If the interest rate gap between the Fed and the Bank of Japan narrows rapidly, asset prices may fall further.
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5. Game blockchain Ronin is suspected of being hacked, involving $9.33 million
Gaming blockchain Ronin released an update saying that earlier today, we received a notification from a white hat hacker about a potential vulnerability in the Ronin bridge. After verification, the bridge was suspended about 40 minutes after the first on-chain action. The attacker withdrew about 4,000 ETH and 2 million USDC from the bridge, worth about $12 million, which is the largest amount withdrawn in a single transaction. The upgrade of the bridge had problems in the governance process, causing the bridge to misunderstand the operator voting threshold required to withdraw funds. Negotiations are currently underway with the attacker.
