The probability of the US rate cut in September is 83%. Bitcoin fell back to 49,000 this time, and it was expected to fall to 48,000, which is a thousand points short. At present, the large-volume pin is supposed to be a bottom signal. Even if it is not the bottom, it will be a staged bottom. But to confirm the bottom, the bottom pattern needs to appear. There may be two situations: one is that the retracement does not break through 53,000 US dollars, forming a head and shoulders bottom pattern; the other is to step on 48,000 again, forming a new double bottom structure.

The intraday pressure is 56,000-57,000. The daily rebound does not have much trading volume, and the possibility of a direct V-shaped reversal is very small. When it fell to 50,000 yesterday, I suggested that you could enter the market. If you haven't entered the market, don't chase high today. You can add positions when it falls back. Short-term players can consider exiting first, and long-term holders don't care and can continue to hold.

You must remember that short-term trading depends on the increase in price, not the position. There are two good entry opportunities for short-term trading: one is a callback to 53,000 during the day, and the other is a second test of 48,000.

After Bitcoin fell below $50,000 twice yesterday, the market was worried that it would continue to fall as the U.S. stock market opened, but the market unexpectedly rebounded after 21:30 last night. As of the time of writing, the price rebounded to $55,555, and the decline in the past 24 hours narrowed to about 3%.


Regarding this wave of bottom-fishing, several key issues need to be clarified:

1) Rebound target: Bitcoin is expected to rise by at least 30%, returning to above $64,000, and rebounding in a weekly trend. It is also possible to create a new historical high and start a new round of weekly main upward trend.

2) Is $49,000 the bottom? Even if it is not the absolute bottom, it shows that the market is close to the bottom. The stronger the market bottom, the more stable it is. There may be a second or even third bottom, and it may even create a new low. For spot holders who bought the bottom yesterday, they should hold steadily and be patient, while contract traders should stop profit in time.

3) Which currencies to choose? Focus on Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), and moderately allocate some strong ETH and SOL ecological projects. Bitcoin set the second largest single-day liquidation record since the bull market yesterday, and Ethereum set the largest single-day liquidation record since the bull market. These phenomena indicate that the market is continuing to adjust and the leverage in the market is decreasing.

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When will the market start to rise sharply?

1. Cryptocurrency has a halving rule. Historically, there are often big moves in the market in the three months after this, and prices may soar.

2. The US election is coming on November 5 this year. This major event will have some impact on the financial market, including the cryptocurrency market.

3. Everyone is looking forward to a rate cut in the United States. Although the exact timing of the cut is still uncertain, a rate cut means more money circulating in the market, which will definitely be good for prices.