The sky is falling and the earth is breaking! August 5th may become the most terrifying Black Monday in history. Almost all global stock markets and cryptocurrency markets were affected and all entered a major plunge mode. In the past 24 hours, BTC has dropped to a minimum of $49,000. In one week, BTC has dropped 30% from over $70,000 on July 29.

In the past 24 hours, a total of 230,000 people were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $912 million. The largest single liquidation occurred in HTX: BTC-USD long order $27,000,010

Although contracts have brought short-term profits and pleasure to many people, how many people have lost their wives and children and their families because of them?

The real value lies not in short-term speculation and gaming, but in long-term planning and contribution.

What objective factors caused this decline?

1: The U.S. stock market plunged last Friday, and the dollar-yen exchange rate plummeted. The market expects Japanese stocks to fall sharply after opening on Monday. Roughly estimated, the Topix Index may have another 6-8% decline based on the 10% decline in the past two days. Japanese stocks have fallen into a bear market in the past few days after the Bank of Japan's biggest policy mistake in recent times. This may force the Bank of Japan to resume easing and cut interest rates a few days after a slight increase in interest rates, when the Japanese economy may fall into contraction again.

2: The conflict between Iran and Israel may escalate. According to CCTV News, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament said on the 4th that Iran will respond strongly to the incident, and Israel and the United States will pay the price for the attack on Haniyeh. On the same day, the Israeli Defense Minister said that Israel is ready to deal with the attack. The key point is that according to the previous situation, every time the conflict escalates, Bitcoin will plummet. It is expected that when the next "conflict" takes place, a similar plunge will occur again.

3: Jump Trading (a global leading quantitative trading company, which also has a great influence in the cryptocurrency circle. They provide liquidity and market-making services covering all types of assets) is currently redeeming a wstETH (120,000 pieces) worth $410 million in batches into ETH and then transferring it to exchanges such as Binance/OKX. So far, 83,000 wstETH have been unpacked and redeemed into 97,500 ETH. Among them, 66,000 ETH (US$191.4 million) have entered the exchange. At present, there are still 37,600 wstETH in their wstETH storage address that have not been transferred out; 11,500 stETH in the redemption ETH address are being redeemed into ETH; 20,000 ETH in the ETH transfer exchange address are waiting to enter the exchange in batches.

4: The 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States recorded the largest single-day outflow of funds since May 1st last Friday (2nd), with a total outflow of US$237.45 million. This is also the fourth highest single-day outflow since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January this year. The total outflow on May 1st was US$563.77 million.

Among them, Fidelity's FBTC outflow exceeded $100 million, Ark Investment and 21Shares' ARKB outflow was about $81 million, Grayscale's GBTC, Bitwise's BITB and VanEck's HODL each outflow was less than $50 million, and the remaining five funds did not change. Despite this, the total trading volume is normal, and the total net asset value of all ETFs is still close to historical highs.

In addition, the Ethereum (ETH) spot ETF, which was recently listed, had a net outflow of $54 million last Friday, which was the smallest outflow in a single day since its listing, but the total net assets dropped sharply from the high of $10.24 billion on the first day of listing to $8.33 billion. Most of the capital outflow occurred in Grayscale's ETHE, which had a net asset of $600 million.

5: The Sam rule with 100% accuracy is triggered. Since 1950, the relevant theory has been confirmed in 11 US economic recessions. If we observe from the stock market, US stocks will have a significant decline in each economic recession. The recession in 2008 was the most serious, with the largest decline of 55%; the recession in 1980 was the smallest, with the largest decline of 16%.

The above is a summary of the objective factors for the Bitcoin plunge to 49,000.

The market is ruthless, but there is love in the world. Friends who agree with this, please follow and like it, share it with your friends in the cryptocurrency circle, and let them know the reason behind it!!
 

Thanks for reading!!!