What kind of changes has Bitcoin experienced in recent days? You know, gold is rising, US stocks are also rising, but Bitcoin is not rising but falling. Why is this?
In September this year, it has become a consensus that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates. According to institutional forecasts, the probability of a rate cut in the interest rate decision on September 19 is as high as 86%.
According to past experience and history, whether the Fed cuts or raises interest rates, there is a delay. In plain words, the market will not fall sharply as soon as the Fed says it will raise interest rates, nor will it fall sharply as soon as the Fed says it will cut interest rates.
For specific historical reference, the bear market decline we experienced in the last round of interest rate hikes was not that the market started to fall immediately after the Fed confirmed the interest rate hike and the interest rate hike was implemented. Instead, it was during the actual interest rate hikes that large funds gradually began to flow into the reservoir of US Treasury bonds.
Therefore, it is clear that a rate hike will not lead to a sharp drop immediately after it is confirmed or implemented. Nor will a rate cut lead to an immediate rally. On the contrary, before the rate hike is implemented, the market will start to speculate on various rate hikes in advance, and the speculation is very serious. When the rate hike is actually implemented, it will become a short-term positive.
Conversely, the same is true for interest rate cuts. For example, this year, speculation began early that interest rates would be cut at the beginning of the year, at the end of the year, and now in September, there is a high probability of a rate cut. Therefore, when the expectation of a rate cut is confirmed, or even a rate cut is actually made in September, there is no guarantee that there will be a short-term bearish market with a positive impact.
In addition, there is a point of view today. Gold prices are rising, US stocks are rising, so why is Bitcoin falling instead of rising?
Since the Bitcoin halving on April 20, the price of Bitcoin has been consolidating in a wide range between $58,000 and $72,000 at $64,880. However, based on technical chart patterns and various indicators, the price of Bitcoin may be about to break out. The key question that remains is what will affect Bitcoin and when will it break out of consolidation?
Gold’s Impact on Crypto Bull Market
Specifically, the 2013 Bitcoin bull run coincided with the gold bear market of the same year. The same situation also occurred in 2017, when Bitcoin's rise coincided with the gold bear market, and this process was repeated in 2021, revealing the inverse relationship between Bitcoin's rise and gold's decline.
The time from the gold bear market to the next major market move was 196 and 213 weeks respectively, reflecting the pattern of when markets change.
A full 208 weeks have passed since the last gold bear market peaked in August 2020. When looking at the past period of time, it is believed that the market is getting closer and closer to more critical levels, which indicates that big changes may be coming in the future.
Accordingly, the upcoming bear market in gold could bring about a bull market in Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin bull run began with the gold bear run, and there is little time left for major changes and a Bitcoin bull run. From the past to the present, people have been comparing gold and Bitcoin for value preservation. The general view among Bitcoin advocates is that the cryptocurrency will replace precious metals and earn the title of "digital gold."
As of today, the price of gold has risen above $2,400 and continued its upward momentum. Gold has particularly appreciated due to geopolitical tensions between Israel and Lebanon in the Middle East.
Bitcoin price expected to see a 'September breakout'
According to prominent cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital, Bitcoin could break out of its consolidation phase in September.
In a July 30 post on X, the analyst wrote:
“Bitcoin still on track for a September breakout.”
Although Bitcoin failed to break out of the re-accumulation range in the 100 days following April’s halving, such a breakout is “unlikely to occur.”
The re-accumulation range refers to the period when buyers accumulate more BTC in anticipation of further price increases.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin appears to be trading within a descending parallel channel, which means that if the price can reclaim $65,000, there is further upside momentum. "Holding $65,000 support, Bitcoin will be able to revisit the top of this pattern over time. In the worst case scenario, Bitcoin will rise to lows of $70,000 (blue circle). In the best case scenario, Bitcoin will completely break out of this structure."
How do you view the current situation of the cryptocurrency world?
1. The current cryptocurrency market is facing the problem that retail investors are running out of patience and lack of incremental large funds.
2. Due to the interest rate hike and stricter regulation in the U.S., the previous large funds basically flowed in and out of American banks, but now there is basically no such thing. In addition, the overall economic environment is not good, and the pockets of institutions are not bulging.
3. Domestic supervision is still strict, and domestic project owners can only keep their tails between their legs
4. There are not many innovative things in the cryptocurrency circle. There are not enough breakthrough new things coming out. It is basically old wine in new bottles. The opportunities for retail investors are still on the chain. There is not enough incremental funds, resulting in insufficient sustainability of the money-making effect, and it is difficult to cultivate consensus among retail investors.
5. This situation requires the US to release more liquidity to increase market liquidity
Funds, Hong Kong can really open up its policies to allow institutional funds to enter this market through more channels, unite people and cultivate everyone's consensus, and ETH needs to continue to optimize the transaction fees on the chain
6. Last year was tough, but this year is even tougher. Retail investors who bought stocks through airdrops or local stocks also lost a lot of money, and those who bought stocks and held them also lost 60%-90%. The market will not become active again until the U.S. starts to cut interest rates.
7. There is another non-agricultural data today, which also needs attention. In addition, Japan's interest rate hike has already occurred. Although it is a relatively negative data, the rate hike is not large and the market has had enough expectations, so there is almost no impact. The US stock futures are rising quite well now.
Pay attention to some 10x targets
xrp: A strong and clear market maker. There are obvious signs of market protection in this pullback. They will be present in every bull market. I like to pull up the market in the later stage of the main uptrend.
etc: strong banker, chips are concentrated, there is nothing else but the banker, and the banker is everything.
op: In the second layer, it was listed first, and every time Ethereum gains momentum, the second layer becomes the focus of hype.
dydx: It was at the tail end of the last bull market, without any over-speculation, oversold, and has been trading sideways at the bottom for a long time, similar to the situations of people, nes, etc.
fil: The last round of oversold was 1,000 times. The characteristic is that the main force is in every rebound. A bull market rebound of ten times is not a big problem.
doge: Musk concept, shouting to protect the market in a bear market and quietly pulling up the market in a bull market, with a good mass base, it is easy to make miracles, and after this correction, it is not difficult to increase tenfold.
How to select high-quality targets in the current market?
After setting the general tone, if it is an upward trend, I will select investment projects. I will study 3 to 6 sectors, among which I will focus on 2 sectors and the other sectors will depend on the market situation. There are mainly the following sectors:
1. There are significant positive news in the near future.
2. Those that have been quite popular recently.
3. The target of benefit when the market is hot.
Of course everyone has their own preferences.
One of the questions after choosing a project is when to buy and when to sell. Because most of the time you are participating in an upward trend, the first thing to consider is when to buy, and then when to sell.
The biggest reference for buying and selling is the BTC trend, because when judging the medium and long-term trends in the first step, the general trend of BTC will be judged, and then it will be bought in combination with the positions.
Take the pending order mode as a cover, dare to buy when the price drops, and play with these stable currencies!
$ETH: 3100, 3000, 2900 with 10,000 u and 3x leverage
$SOL: 150, 140, 130, 20,000 u, 2x leverage
$PEPE: 9, 8, 7.5, 30,000 u-coins, 2x leverage
3.3.4 Amount Configuration for Positions at Three Points
For example, if the amount is 10,000 U, the order will be 3,000, 3,000, 4,000
Whether the fourth quarter will be a huge success or a huge failure depends on the current sowing.
For copycats, $WIF is currently recommended
Dogwifhat (WIF) is currently trading between $1.8 and $2.76. The price has fallen by nearly 24% in the past week and 16% in the past month, indicating a lack of bullish momentum in the near term. The coin has support at $1.97, resistance at $3.12, and the next hurdle at $3.69. Despite the recent setback, WIF has risen by 47% in the past six months, indicating great growth potential. If it breaks through the $3.12 mark, it could surge by more than 40%.
Recommend these tokens with unlimited potential:
BSV
Current price: $48.81
Market value: $964 million
24-hour trading volume: $43,827,000
Another Bitcoin fork, Bitcoin SV, focuses on stability and scalability, closely adhering to what it claims to be Bitcoin’s original principles.
BSV’s commitment to a stable protocol and scalability is likely to attract more businesses looking for reliable blockchain solutions.
The BSV blockchain has a powerful scalable architecture, and its innovative platform can support applications in the fields of artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, etc. With the increase in innovative projects on the chain, the powerful functions of the BSV blockchain are becoming more and more prominent. This opens up unlimited possibilities for companies seeking blockchain technology to promote digital transformation and solve complex business problems.
GHOST
Current price: $115.27
Market value: $1.716 billion
24-hour volume: $311 million
Aave is a decentralized finance protocol that allows people to lend and borrow cryptocurrencies. Aave’s massive growth can be attributed to the growing interest in DeFi platforms and its recent protocol upgrade, which enhanced the platform’s security and user experience.
As DeFi becomes increasingly mainstream, Aave continues to improve its product, and the potential for further profit is huge. Aave's innovative approach to DeFi solutions puts it in a good position in the evolving crypto space.
It has gained 8.4% in the past day and around 22.5% in the past week. Moreover, the stock has surged 79.4% so far this year, suggesting a positive outlook ahead.
XLM
Current price: $0.09774
Market value: $2.874 billion
24-hour trading volume: $77,387,200
Stellar is a peer-to-peer decentralized network designed to connect the global financial system. It provides a protocol for payment providers and financial institutions to enable fast and reliable flow of financial resources at minimal cost.
Additionally, the platform facilitates transactions between individuals, banks, and payment processors, allowing users to create, send, and trade various types of cryptocurrencies. Recently, Stellar launched a cryptographic feature to enhance user security and accessibility.
This feature provides a user-friendly experience similar to traditional Web2 applications. It further simplifies the transition to Web3 and significantly improves the security and user experience of the web.
The 14-day relative strength index is 54.64, which indicates that the coin is currently in a neutral state and may see sideways fluctuations. In addition, Stellar’s solution aims to bridge the gap between traditional finance and decentralized finance, providing a promising platform for fast and reliable transactions.
$ETC
ETC is the third most valuable cryptocurrency held by Grayscale Fund. It is a hard fork token of Ethereum, which retains the code rules and features of the original Ethereum. It is known as a fork coin that adheres to the Ethereum consensus proof mechanism and has many supporters. It has fallen back nearly 50% from the high point of this round of bull market and is in a bottom consolidation state. You can consider building a position in spot.
$BCH
BCH is Grayscale's cryptocurrency, with 338,100 coins currently held, ranking fourth in value. It is also a hard fork coin. BCH currently ranks 14th in market value, with a circulating market value of $8 billion. Although BCH is also included in the cryptocurrencies compensated in the Mt. Gox case, it has risen by more than 40% since the crash in early July, and has a high market recognition. The current price is $405, and you can consider buying it when it falls back.
$WHAT
After a sharp rise in 2023, Kaspa’s price continues to show a bullish trend, rising 7.22% in the past day and about 15% in the past week. Moreover, the stock has surged 82.40% so far this year, which indicates a positive outlook for the future. If the market sustains Kaspa’s price above its support level of $0.19850, bulls will continue to gain value and be ready to test its upper limit of $0.2250 in the coming weeks.
