The latest research from Matrixport Research Institute shows that
BTC Q4 market outlook is good, technical analysis shows BTC is expected to break through consolidation
It is not ruled out that the central bank may significantly cut interest rates in the next 12 months
BTC is about to enter a period of monthly weakness, Trump may boost the crypto market
BTC Q4 market outlook is good, technical analysis shows BTC is expected to break through consolidation
Currently in the middle of the third quarter, BTC is experiencing one of the most challenging quarters in its history. Coupled with the upcoming weak period, the challenging trading environment may continue for several weeks. However, BTC is expected to perform well in the fourth quarter.
From a technical perspective, BTC’s trading range is narrowing, indicating that it may soon break out of the consolidation period. Based on the Fed’s expectations of rate cuts and positive fourth quarter news, coupled with the potential boost from the results of the U.S. presidential election, it is not ruled out that BTC may break out in the coming weeks.
It is not ruled out that the central bank may significantly cut interest rates in the next 12 months
As expected, the Fed did not adjust interest rates. Fed Chairman Powell has said that if inflation develops as expected, it is likely that a rate cut will be decided at the September meeting. Our inflation model also predicts that CPI will gradually fall over the next 12 months. The Fed's rate cuts may continue for several quarters, with a 25 basis point reduction at each meeting. This will provide liquidity and stimulus to risk assets such as BTC.
The difference between the current interest rate of 5.25% and the inflation rate of 3.0% reflects the restrictive interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve. This means that the central bank may cut interest rates significantly in the next 12 months.
BTC is about to enter a period of monthly weakness, Trump may boost the crypto market
Historically, returns tend to move sideways in August, followed by a period of weakness in September. This cyclical pattern can be attributed to several factors, including lower trading volumes during the summer holidays and market uncertainty as traders wait to see economic indicators and central bank policy decisions in the fall.
If Trump wins the election, the series of policies and actions he will take will likely boost the crypto asset market. His administration may take a more favorable regulatory stance toward crypto assets, thereby reducing regulatory uncertainty and promoting innovation.
Some of the above opinions are from Matrix on Target. Contact us to obtain the full report of Matrix on Target.
Disclaimer: The market is risky and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and unstable. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
