In the X space: "2024 Bitcoin Conference Nashville" event initiated by TMTpost and ChainDD, Yu Meng, the host of the first issue of TMTpost, talked with senior market maker bc Fat Tiger 0x, Pantner Frank Sui of Roaming Capital, senior trader Xiao Shuai, and ChainDD deputy editor-in-chief Dorji and ChainDD market director Dana. Regarding the Nashville Bitcoin Conference, they discussed related topics such as the impact of the Bitcoin Conference in the United States and the significance of Trump's signal of goodwill towards Bitcoin.
The following content is simplified based on the content of X space:
Yu Meng: Trump is currently favored to win the US election, and due to the Republican Party’s crypto-friendly policies this year, it is generally believed that the United States will give greater support to future Crypto policies, such as the launch of the SOL ETF. For example, Trump proposed that all Bitcoins should be produced in the United States. Some commentators said that the support for Bitcoin is mainly because liquidity is maintained by stablecoins anchored to the US dollar. Does that mean that the future Crypto world will become a world dominated by the US dollar? In contrast, how should the Asian market, or the Chinese-speaking market, compete with the US for the right to speak?
Frank Sui: Regarding USDT, it is firmly controlled by Americans. If Americans want to check something, such as criminal records, Tether will immediately freeze the account. There is a backdoor. The United States has sufficient control over USDT. This also applies to Bitcoin. The largest share of Bitcoin is not in Binance, but in Coinbase. It is a US listed company. In the future, Crypto will basically be dominated by the United States.
In fact, inscriptions can be considered a track in the first half of this year, but we cannot see the next step of development in the future, and it is not yet time for implementation.
Dorji: Professor Frank just mentioned USDT. If we distinguish the Crypto world from the country to which it belongs, at the national level, because USDT is based on the US dollar but is a stable currency, from this perspective, the Crypto world is completely dominated by the US dollar. So what about the Chinese power? Putting aside the mainland, it is currently mainly in the Hong Kong and Singapore markets. Recently, JD.com will launch a stable currency anchored 1:1 to the Hong Kong dollar in Hong Kong, and there are some attempts to make stable currencies anchored to offshore RMB. No matter how high the market share of USDT is, the stable currency market must be explored.
The regulatory system is also a difficult problem that the Chinese-speaking world needs to solve. Singapore's regulatory system is applied to the current regulatory system to allow web3 to take some international routes, allowing commercial banks, financial institutions, and commercial institutions to form cross-border blockchains to enter the hinterlands of other countries, and finally form a blockchain pattern for the Southeast Asian integrated market. For example, their taxi app Grab has become the largest taxi app in Southeast Asia in the web2 world. Through such a centralized Internet platform, it can access the use scenarios and needs of web3. Last year, Grab launched NFT, and it is said that the next step is to launch coins. I think mainland China and Hong Kong can learn and draw lessons from the regulatory system.
Dorji: Trump will announce Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve asset at this conference. What do you think of this news? And what impact will it have on the Crypto landscape and prices?
Xiao Shuai: I am rather pessimistic about this news. I feel that this news is announced more from the perspective of a campaign slogan and canvassing for votes. It will probably take a relatively long time before he actually implements this matter. There are many variables here.
Second, there is a lot of room for maneuver here. How much is it exactly? We don’t know what proportion of assets will be allocated to Bitcoin. But on the other hand, it will indeed bring confidence to the market from a long-term perspective and will have a better leading role. Bitcoin will slowly move from a technology-led narrative to a deeper asset narrative, increasing Bitcoin’s valuation.
It will not affect the long-term trend, but there will be some fluctuations in the short term. Players with high leverage should pay more attention to market fluctuations.
Dana: We have also made some summaries and predictions on the market reaction, and it has been confirmed that it has exceeded 690 million US dollars today. There may be a decline later, but investors’ confidence has been strengthened. So we will welcome Trump’s speech. Once this news is released, it will inevitably have a positive impact on Bitcoin prices and market position in the long run. It also enhances legitimacy and will attract new investors into the big pie pool. Over time, in the global market, attention and investment sentiment will rise.
The strategic reserve of Bitcoin will help the United States maintain an advantage in the global economic competition, including the implementation of direct payment scenarios with digital currency.
Frank Sui: Investing is a slow process. In the past few years, the frequency of profitable investment transactions has been very low, and non-robot quantitative trading will basically result in losses. I think as long as you identify a good target, you must hold it for a long time. The current market is not very good. After Trump takes office, especially after the interest rate cut next year, the market will rebound significantly. As for the U.S. stock market, the S&P did not have a correction in 2017. This kind of big market is the real harvest for everyone. With the development of AI, a lot of funds have entered this industry. You can consider the impact of AI on blockchain. Since the era of mobile Internet, there has only been one real outlet, which is Web3. Now AI has also come out, which means there are two outlets and more choices. You can pay more attention to the track that combines AI and Web3.
There will be continuity in policies after Trump takes office because it will only benefit the United States.
A friend just mentioned Singapore. Singapore is a very pragmatic country. I have lived here for more than 20 years. Singapore has always been very supportive of Bitcoin. Pragmatism is based on its own interests. Blockchain has not only brought a lot of money, but also a lot of talents. But if you want to do something messy, you will be cleared away. It is a very pragmatic environment. Europe is also catching up now. Everyone is embracing this industry. Everyone should have confidence.
bc胖虎0x: The United States is more supportive of encryption, and Hong Kong is the most beneficial. These days everyone has been laughing at one thing, Trump said that Bitcoin must be created in the United States, otherwise China will do it. People in the circle will find it outrageous. This shows that he is not clear about the specific situation in China. Or he wants to use this slogan to stand up for encryption.
The only benefit of this is Hong Kong. Frankly speaking, Hong Kong is now in a position of catching up, and it hopes to be more relaxed. It is still exploring, but it does not have much experience. Trump's support is a natural way for Hong Kong to relax its policies. I am optimistic about the future development of Hong Kong. Of course, the Web3 industry must be strong on its own, and it still needs the development of some new blockchain innovation technologies to combine blockchain technology with other industries to bring good wealth and technological benefits.
The project parties that issued coins in the first half of this year have not been able to reap much profit from the secondary market. It can be said that apart from Bitcoin, there are almost no fish in the entire secondary market. What should be done with the remaining coins next? This is also a key point to test the industry.
Dorji: The most grand and important Bitcoin conference in history has ended. What highlights or topics do you think are more important or interesting? Please talk about your feelings about this conference.
Xiao Shuai: I am more concerned about the issue of Bitcoin expansion. What the entire industry needs is self-sustaining and making a valuable and meaningful product. On the other hand, there is also a very important thing, which is to activate BTC assets, most of which are here. I have observed some interesting phenomena, such as the Great Wizard team, which has had the idea of Bitcoin expansion since 2019, and started to do some OP_CAT in 2021, which can be considered as the node character of the BTC network, to expand the capacity and introduce more executable commands to this chain, not only to support transfers, but also to support transactions, exchanges, and lending-related matters.
Let me say a little more about OP_CAT. It is a feature designed by Satoshi Nakamoto, but he felt that this feature was too dangerous, like a Pandora’s box, which might affect the Bitcoin ecosystem. What the Great Wizard team wants to do is to revive Satoshi Nakamoto’s previous design of OP_CAT and bring some simple smart contracts and business logic to the chain.
At present, there is a trend in Bitcoin. We are worried that the transactions on the Bitcoin chain will become smaller. With the halving every four years, the incentives for miners will become smaller and smaller. At this time, there are two solutions: to push up the price of Bitcoin, increase the price and increase the income; the other way is to reactivate the transactions on the chain and obtain transaction fees.
Frank Sui: The Bitcoin conference allows more outsiders to understand it, which has a very positive effect. Any product requires consensus, and the more consensus there is on Bitcoin, the greater its value will be. Everyone needs to be patient.
I don’t think it’s necessary for Bitcoin to expand. Why? Expansion plans like Bitcoin Gold have all failed. I think Bitcoin should be simpler and should remain as it is now.
In the future, it is possible for Ethereum to return to zero, but the possibility of Dogecoin returning to zero is lower.
Yu Meng: Are there any wealth codes that you’ve paid special attention to recently? What are your expectations for the development of the SOL ecosystem in the second half of the year?
Xiao Shuai: I am more pessimistic. Now a hot spot in the entire Solana ecosystem disappeared within 48 hours. As for investment, I think it is best to treat it as a game, and don’t consider the Solana ecosystem from the perspective of making money.
The recent market fluctuations have been very large, and trading has become very difficult recently. Please set your stop loss points.
Frank Sui: Recently including Solana, Telegram, and the Ethereum ecosystem, if you are not a community developer, it is best not to touch them for the time being.
I am more optimistic about: Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dogecoin, these three have survived the longest. Secondly, I am very optimistic about Monero, which has its own application scenarios. These are all valuable.
bc胖虎0x: I am still looking forward to the subsequent development of Solana. The price of 180 US dollars is still too cheap for SOL. It has not even broken the previous high. Compared with BNB, SOL will be more flexible. It is also more politically correct and is operated by Wall Street. It still has a relatively loud voice in the mainstream US market.
It is a pity that MeMe coin on Solana may not have the same chance as it did at the beginning of this year. Patience is a consumable for the entire market. Buying MeMe coin will result in a loss nine times out of ten. If you finally settle the accounts, people will not continue to buy and will leave after trying a few times. When the patience in the market is exhausted, the story behind will not be easy to tell.
So I am optimistic about Solana because of its capital and project management capabilities, but there are no particularly big opportunities in its specific ecosystem. Other wealth codes are more focused on the Bitcoin ecosystem, but they have not yet emerged, and I think they are also more likely not on the second layer.