$BTC $ETH $SOL Self-cultivation of a bull, how to become a stable bull?
Although we are bullish, we are not blindly bullish. First of all, what is the consensus of the bulls?
Consensus 1: The fundamentals of the cryptocurrency market have made a qualitative leap this year. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have launched ETFs, which shows that Bitcoin and Ethereum have gone beyond the circle.
Not limited to the cryptocurrency circle, people all over the world can invest in Bitcoin through US stocks.
Consensus 2: Bitcoin is halved, and Bitcoin has a four-year cycle. History will not simply repeat itself, but it will be surprisingly similar. So if there is a bull,
The opportunities in the next two years are even greater. In addition, the real positive is that the halving will reduce the output of miners by 400 per day. The reduction in supply directly reduces the resistance to the market's rise.
Consensus 3: The United States will start cutting interest rates in September, and the current probability is close to 90%. The United States can no longer hold on. If it does not cut interest rates, it may cause national bankruptcy.
The Federal Reserve is already at the end of its rope, and interest rate cuts have become inevitable. Loosening money is definitely good for assets, and people are more willing to invest in a low-interest environment
How do bulls control their risk and manage their positions?
Risk control is the most important thing. Even if the bull market comes, if you are harvested in advance, you will not be able to participate in the bull market, so never carry an order.
Most old investors did not die from chasing ups and downs, but were unwilling to cut their losses, which led to their being blasted by dog dealers. We will never know how long the blasting needle is.
So you must have a stop loss and don't be swayed by emotions
Another thing is position management. Never put all your eggs in one basket. Always leave yourself a chance to turn things around. Don't go all in, don't hold a large position, and take it slow.
What is the entry and exit logic of bulls?
Entry can be divided into against the trend and with the trend. Against the trend is to buy at the bottom, and with the trend is to enter the market during the rising process. Let’s talk about these two situations separately.
Bottom-fishing is the most difficult. In a counter-trend market, once a trend is formed, it is difficult to change. The decline can be divided into a volatile decline and a continuous decline.
There are often rebounds in a volatile decline, but it is difficult for a rebound to turn into a reversal. It is even more unacceptable to buy at the bottom in a continuous decline. Every decline will become a resistance to the rise, so it is best not to buy at the bottom.
If we must buy at the bottom, we start with several bottom signals, first of all, volume and price. If the volume increases but the price does not keep up,
Then the momentum of the decline may weaken, and there is a possibility of a rebound, which is specifically reflected in the large-volume closing of the needle during the decline, that is, the large-volume closing of the needle. In addition, the trading volume is enlarged, but the price only falls slightly.
In general, it is necessary to make sure that there is demand below;
In another case, if the price falls back to a key position, such as a chip concentration area, a previous resistance support exchange area, an M top neckline, etc., there may be potential demand.
However, we try to enter the market when the price falls back, rebounds, or falls back twice to ensure that the price is effectively supported.
In addition, breaking through the downward trend line, breaking through the previous resistance, and breaking through the chip concentration area are also opportunities to enter the market, representing that the bulls are trying to counterattack.
However, when it comes to entry opportunities, we try to refer to the ideas of breakthrough, pullback, and stabilization to ensure a successful breakthrough before considering entry.
The above is the situation of entering the market against the trend
Entering the market with the trend is relatively simple and recommended, but the market does not always follow the trend.
Break through key points to enter the market, such as the previous chip concentration area, the resistance support exchange area, and the previous high point. This is the idea of breakthrough.
Similarly, we also need to confirm the breakthrough twice, that is, breakthrough, retracement, and stabilization to prevent false breakthroughs.
Entering the market at key points, such as the lower edge of the rising trend line, the second highest point, and the concentrated area of chips, are all opportunities to enter the market, and also ensure secondary confirmation
Finally, let's talk about the technical indicators we need. We can use EMA SAR to determine the trend, VOL to determine the trading volume, and VPVR to determine the chip concentration area.
For a trend trading bull, these indicators are enough
What do you think?
